Content-Type: multipart/related; start=; boundary=----------ntHLjO7fI2gwO3QocSG5sT Content-Location: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesianismo Subject: =?utf-8?Q?Keynesianismo=20-=20Wikipedia,=20la=20enciclopedia=20libre?= MIME-Version: 1.0 ------------ntHLjO7fI2gwO3QocSG5sT Content-Disposition: inline; filename=Keynesianismo.htm Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8; name=Keynesianismo.htm Content-ID: Content-Location: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesianismo Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-Printable Keynesianismo - Wikipedia, la enciclope= dia libre

Keynesianismo

De Wikipedia, la enciclopedia libre

El keynesianismo o econom=C3=ADa keynesiana es= una teor=C3=ADa= econ=C3=B3mica<= /a> propuesta por John Maynard Keynes, plasmada en su obra Teor=C3= =ADa general del empleo, el inter=C3=A9s y el dinero, publicada = en 1936 como respuesta a la Gran D= epresi=C3=B3n de 1929. Est=C3=A1 basada en el est=C3=ADmulo de la ec= onom=C3=ADa en =C3=A9pocas de crisis.

3D""
3D""
John= Maynard Keynes creador del Keynesianismo.

La econom=C3=ADa keynesiana se centr=C3=B3 en el an=C3=A1lisis de las= causas y consecuencias de las variaciones de la demanda agregada y sus relaci= ones con el nivel de empleo y de ingresos.[1] El inter=C3=A9s final de Keynes fue poder dotar a unas instituci= ones nacionales o internacionales de poder para controlar la econom=C3=AD= a en las =C3=A9pocas de recesi=C3=B3n o crisis. Este control se ejerc=C3=ADa mediante= el gasto presupuestario del Estado, pol=C3=ADtica que se llam=C3=B3 pol=C3= =ADtica fiscal. La justificaci=C3=B3n econ=C3=B3mica para actuar de = esta manera, parte sobre todo, del efecto multiplicador que se produce= ante un incremento en la demanda agregada.

Ruptura con el dogma cl=C3=A1sico= [editar =C2=B7= editar c=C3=B3digo]<= /span>

Keynes refutaba la teor=C3=ADa cl=C3=A1sica de acuerdo = a la cual la econom=C3=ADa, regulada por s=C3=AD sola, tiende autom=C3=A1= ticamente al pleno uso de los factores productivos o medios de producci=C3=B3n (incluyendo el capital y trabajo). Keynes postul=C3=B3 que el equilibrio a= l que te=C3=B3ricamente tiende el libre mercado, depende de otro= s factores[2] y no conlleva necesariamente al pleno empleo= de los medios de producci=C3=B3n, es decir, que los postulados b=C3=A1s= icos de Smith, Ricardo, etc., dependen de una premisa que no es necesari= amente correcta o "general". As=C3=AD Keynes postul=C3=B3 que la posici=C3= =B3n de Smith, Say o <= a href=3D"/wiki/David_Ricardo" title=3D"David Ricardo">Ricardo, sobr= e el equilibrio de la oferta y la de= manda, ser=C3=ADa correspondiente a un caso "especial" o excepcional= ,[3= ] en tanto que la teor=C3=ADa deber=C3=ADa referirse al= proceso "general" y a los factores que determinan la tasa de empleo en la realidad.[4] En consecuencia llam=C3=B3 a su proposici=C3=B3n "Teor=C3=ADa genera= l".

En t=C3=A9rminos no t=C3=A9cnicos, el liberalismo econ=C3=B3mico cl=C3= =A1sico supone que cuando se produce un bien se han producido tambi=C3=A9= n los medios para la compra de otros bienes (en la medida en que una vez= producido podr=C3=A1 ser directa o indirectamente -mediante el uso de d= inero- intercambiado por otros bienes. ver Ley de Say). Sugiere que para fomentar = crecimiento econ=C3=B3mico no hay que penalizar la producci=C3=B3n:[5] a m=C3=A1s producci=C3=B3n, m=C3= =A1s bienes que intercambiar, m=C3=A1s intercambios, etc. As=C3=AD, en e= l largo plazo, no solo todo lo que se produce es lo mismo que todo lo qu= e se compra, sino que todos est=C3=A1n interesados en que el sistema fun= cione a m=C3=A1xima capacidad= [6] (se logra un equilibrio e= ntre la producci=C3=B3n y la demanda agregada que tiende al m=C3=A1ximo uso de= los "recursos econ=C3=B3micos", incluyendo el pleno empleo.- ver tambi=C3=A9n Ley de Walras). En = esa situaci=C3=B3n lo racional es utilizar inmediatamente cualquier ingreso, dado que mantener d= inero sin uso no produce beneficios. N=C3=B3tese que lo anterior implica= equivalencia estricta entre a= horros e inversiones: =E2=80=9Cposponer consumo=E2=80=9D sin in= vertir el dinero es equivalente a mantener sumas ociosas, es decir, es e= con=C3=B3micamente irracional, como lo es el no utilizar para invertir s= umas disponibles en los bancos (los ahorros de otros, etc.).

Conviene notar que lo anterior se puede interpretar de dos maneras: l= a primera: que "todo lo que se vende es igual que todo lo que se compra"= es obviamente correcta. La segunda, que "los costos de todo lo que se p= roduce est=C3=A1n cubiertos por todo lo que se compra" es debatible. Key= nes sugiere que lo =C3=BAltimo solo es correcto cuando todo lo que no se= gasta es inmediatamente ahorrado (se deposita en un banco) y todo lo ah= orrado es directamente invertido. Sucede que, en realidad, hay, por lo m= enos, una cantidad de dinero que ni se usa para comprar ni se ahorra en = ese sentido: se mantiene "en el bolsillo" o como reserva l=C3= =ADquida. Esta preferencia por la liquidez tiene efectos econ=C3=B3m= icos. (Nota: para una Introducci=C3=B3n a todo lo que sigue es convenien= te alguna familiaridad con el aporte de Knut Wicksell y apo= rte del Grupo de Cambridge en Monetarismo)

Say cre=C3=ADa que no pod=C3=ADa haber comprador sin un productor, pe= ro que si pod=C3=ADa haber productor sin que hubiera comprador -por lo q= ue, el consumo ser=C3=ADa consecuencia y recompensa de la producci=C3=B3= n y no al rev=C3=A9s-. Keynes invierte la Ley de Say.[7] P= ara =C3=A9l no es la producci=C3=B3n la que determina la demanda, sino l= a demanda la que determina la producci=C3=B3n. (ver "Teor=C3=ADa general= sobre el empleo el inter=C3=A9s y el dinero", caps. 1, 2, 3, etc.). Est= o porque los empresarios -o quienes intentan serlo- invierten sobre la b= ase de una percepci=C3=B3n central: la diferencia entre la tasa de inter=C3= =A9s y la tasa de ganancia.:[8] a mayor diferencia en favor = de la =C3=BAltima, incluso en t=C3=A9rminos estrictamente cl=C3=A1sicos,= lo m=C3=A1s posible es que se invierta.[9] Pero esa tasa = de ganancia depende de la demanda (ver cita anterior de Stuart Mill). Mi= entras tanto, los consumidores consumen o =E2=80=9Cahorran=E2=80=9D (def= ieren consumo) no s=C3=B3lo cuando la tasa de inter=C3=A9s sube, sino ta= mbi=C3=A9n en relaci=C3=B3n a la percepci=C3=B3n de la evoluci=C3=B3n fu= tura tanto de sus ingresos como de los precios de bienes de consumo, etc= .<= span class=3D"corchete-llamada">[10] Se establece as=C3=AD una relaci=C3=B3n compleja. = Keynes aduce que el problema comienza cuando contemplamos el circuito ec= on=C3=B3mico en su conjunto (lo que introduce la macroeconom=C3=ADa). Suce= de que las decisiones acerca del ahorro y las decisiones acerca de inver= siones las hacen personas distintas y, posiblemente, en momentos diferen= tes.[11] Sigue con que no hay necesidad de que esas deci= siones tengan que coincidir, de hecho, hist=C3=B3ricamente, se puede ver= que, a diferencia de lo postulado por Smith, Say y otros, esas variable= s no convergen a una situaci=C3=B3n de estabilidad o equilibrio econ=C3=B3mico cl=C3=A1sico o walrasiano -situaci=C3= =B3n que se transforma en el caso especial en el que las inversiones igu= alan a los ahorros en una situaci=C3=B3n de expansi=C3=B3n de producci=C3= =B3n y precios relativamente altos en relaci=C3=B3n al salario medio, pe= ro con tendencia a la deflaci=C3=B3n.[12] Keynes va m=C3=A1s lejos, = sugiriendo que la situaci=C3=B3n tiende -dado una serie de factores, ent= re los cuales el principal es una tasa de inter=C3=A9s excesiva- a oscil= ar alrededor de un punto en el cual los recursos no se utilizan efectiva= o plenamente, ya que tal tasa de inter=C3=A9s tiende a deprimir la econ= om=C3=ADa en general: un inter=C3=A9s excesivo reduce la demanda por capital f= inanciero y, consecuentemente, por el trabajo, lo que reduce el nive= l del agregado de salarios, lo que implica la reducci=C3=B3n general de = consumo, lo que a su vez significa que la tasa de ganancia disminuye, lo= que nuevamente reduce la demanda de inversiones, etc., en un c=C3=ADrculo vicioso (ver Paradoja del ahorro)

En otras palabras, Keynes postul=C3=B3 que, en ciertas situaciones, y= contrario a lo planteado por la visi=C3=B3n cl=C3=A1sica, es econ=C3=B3= micamente racional no gastar dinero. Por ejemplo, si los precios est=C3=A1= n bajando es racional no comprar hoy porque con el mismo dinero se compr= ar=C3=A1 m=C3=A1s la semana que viene. Por el mismo motivo, disminuye la= cantidad de gente interesada en utilizar pr=C3=A9stamos (los ahorros de= otros): si los precios bajan, no solo se comprar=C3=A1 m=C3=A1s la sema= na que viene, sino que las tasas de inter=C3=A9s, sueldos, etc., ser=C3=A1= n menores. Igualmente, una baja del empleo o de los salarios -amenazando= futuros ingresos- puede llevar a otra en la demanda, y por lo tanto a u= na baja en la producci=C3=B3n, llevando a su vez a m=C3=A1s desempleo. A= s=C3=AD, sucede que la econom=C3=ADa establece un punto de equilibrio nu= evo (llamado equilibrio macroecon=C3=B3= mico o keynesiano[13] ) donde convive perfectamente = en una situaci=C3=B3n lejana de la utilizaci=C3=B3n =C3=B3ptima de los m= edios de producci=C3=B3n.[14] Espec=C3=ADficamente, en l= a d=C3=A9cada de los '30 del siglo XX, durante la Gran Depresi=C3=B3n, c= on una alta tasa de dese= mpleo. Joan = Robinson clarifica que, en una situaci=C3=B3n de competencia imper= fecta -como lo es en realidad el sistema capitalista- sucede que las= empresas pueden aumentar sus ingresos ya sea bajando precios a fin de p= roducir y vender m=C3=A1s o produciendo menos pero manteniendo o incluso= incrementando los precios. Esta =C3=BAltima =E2=80=9Csoluci=C3=B3n=E2=80= =9D implica no solo menos demanda por insumos, sino tambi=C3=A9n por tra= bajo -es decir, tiende a ser una situaci=C3=B3n en la cual los recursos = no son plenamente empleados- y explica perfectamente el gran desempleo o= bservado en ciertas circunstancias -espec=C3=ADficamente, durante la gra= n depresi=C3=B3n- al mismo tiempo que la mantenci=C3=B3n o, incluso, el = incremento de la tasa de ganancia en algunas empresas en esos periodos.<= sup id=3D"cite_ref-15" class=3D"reference">[15]

As=C3=AD pues, dado que la relaci=C3=B3n =E2=80=9Cahorro igual a la i= nversi=C3=B3n=E2=80=9D no se establece solo o autom=C3=A1ticamente a tra= v=C3=A9s de la acci=C3=B3n del mercado[16] y esa falla t= iende a resultar en crisis, parecer=C3=ADa conveniente encontrar alguna = manera de armonizar esas variables. Keynes postula que la =C3=BAnica fue= rza capaz de hacer eso es el Estado.[17]

Para entender el funcionamiento real de la econom=C3=ADa y sus difere= ncias con los esquemas formales del dogma cl=C3=A1sico, especialmente de= l punto de vista de que sucede cuando el ingreso aumenta, Keynes desarro= ll=C3=B3 los conceptos de propensi=C3=B3n a consumir o propensi=C3=B3n marginal al consumo, propensi=C3=B3n marginal al ahorro; multiplicador keynesiano del gasto[18]= o de la inversi=C3=B3n,[19] [20] eficiencia marginal del capital (o tasa de ganancia: e= l beneficio que genera la inversi=C3=B3n, descontando de esos beneficios= futuros los intereses pagados para financiar dicha inversi=C3=B3n.=E2=80= =9D[21] ) y preferencia por la liquidez = ( =E2=80=9CTendencia que muestran las personas a escoger activos l=C3=AD= quidos frente a otros de m=C3=A1s dif=C3=ADcil realizaci=C3=B3n".[22] ), etc. (Para una visi=C3=B3n temprana de todo lo anterior= ver, por ejemplo, Alvin H. Hansen: Mr. Keynes on Un= deremployment Equilibrium - (en ingl=C3=A9s).

Formalizacion[= editar =C2=B7 editar c=C3=B3digo]=

(n=C3=B3tese: lo que sigue asume el punto de vista neokeynesiano o de la s=C3=ADntesis neocl=C3=A1sica. ver =E2=80=9CDesarrollo= s posteriores=E2=80=9D m=C3=A1s abajo).

Quiz=C3=A1s la forma m=C3=A1s f=C3=A1cil de aproximarse a la formaliz= aci=C3=B3n de todo lo anterior es considerar que constituye, en un momen= to dado, el poder de compra de un pa=C3=ADs. Ese poder de compra es equivale= nte a la suma del ingreso de todos (Y). Pero, dado que el ingreso total = de los individuos (Y) se distribuye tanto en consumo como ahorros/invers= i=C3=B3n, cualquier aumento del ingreso llevara a un aumento tanto del p= rimer factor como del segundo. Es decir, cuando el ingreso aumenta, el c= onsumo aumenta, pero no tanto como el aumento del ingreso. Lo mismo acer= ca del ahorro.

En otras palabras, cualquier cambio (=CE=94) en el ingreso agregado d= e una naci=C3=B3n (Y) produce una variaci=C3=B3n fraccional tanto del ah= orro (A) como del consumo (C) del conjunto de los habitantes. Ese cambio= fraccional se puede expresar de la siguiente manera:

0 < =CE=94A/=CE=94Y< 1 y: 0 <=CE=94C/=CE=94Y< 1

La primera define lo que se llama Propensi=C3= =B3n marginal al ahorro (pma) (definido como el ahorro adicio= nal por cada unidad extra de ingresos) y la segunda la Propensi=C3=B3n marginal al consumo (pmc) (entendi= do como el consumo adicional por cada unidad extra de ingresos).

Si representamos "'pma"' como a y pmc como b, se= puede decir que:

pma =3D 1 - b

Es decir, la propensi=C3=B3n marginal al ahorro por cada incremento e= n el ingreso es igual a ese incremento menos la fracci=C3=B3n de ese aum= ento que se consuma.

Mirando desde el lado del consumo, y modificando la manera de expresa= r esa relaci=C3=B3n, se puede ver que ese tambi=C3=A9n depende de esa pr= opensi=C3=B3n a consumir: C =3D bY

3D""
3D""
"Cruz keynesiana"

Lo anterior define la llamada =E2=80=98=E2=80=99=E2=80=99funci=C3=B3n= del consumo=E2=80=99=E2=80=99=E2=80=99, que se puede entender como simp= lemente formalizando lo que se ha dicho anteriormente: que el consumo ag= regado es una funci=C3=B3n de la fracci=C3=B3n del ingreso que no se aho= rra, es decir, es la fracci=C3=B3n dedicada a consumir. M=C3=A1s formalm= ente, que depende de la propensi=C3=B3n a consumir. (por supuesto, lo mi= smo se puede decir del ahorro, lo que determina una =E2=80=98=E2=80=99=E2= =80=99funci=C3=B3n del ahorro=E2=80=99=E2=80=99=E2=80=99).

Ahora, si la econom=C3=ADa estuviera en equilibrio walrasiano o cl=C3= =A1sico, el consumo o demanda agregada seria equivalente a la producci=C3= =B3n (todo lo producido seria consumido y todos los ingresos solo vendr=C3= =ADan de lo que se vende). Si representamos gr=C3=A1ficamente lo anterio= r, eso constituir=C3=ADa una l=C3=ADnea recta bifurcando (en un =C3=A1ng= ulo de 45 grados) el rect=C3=A1ngulo delineado por l=C3=ADnea vertical q= ue representa la demanda agregada y la horizontal que representa el prod= ucto agregado (o ingreso agregado). Es decir, a cada aumento en una unid= ad del ingreso, existir=C3=ADa un aumento de una unidad en el consumo.[23= ]

En realidad, por supuesto, la situaci=C3=B3n es un poco m=C3=A1s comp= licada, dado que el cuanto se reciba como ingresos depende no solo del c= onsumo de bienes producidos actualmente sino tambi=C3=A9n del cuanto se = haya ahorrado en el pasado (o se ahorre en el presente); lo que se recib= a como cr=C3=A9dito. etc. As=C3=AD, la demanda agregada real de un pa=C3=ADs e= n un momento determinado se puede representar:

3D"=

donde:

  • 3D" es la Demanda Agregada,<= /li>
  • 3D" es el Ingreso total,
  • =
  • 3D" es el consumo,
  • 3D" es el ahorro o inversi=C3= =B3n (se usa I a fin de evitar confusiones),
  • 3D" es el gasto p=C3=BAblico = o de gobierno en bienes y servicios,
  • 3D" son las exportaciones net= as,

Si solo consideramos los elementos internos, eso se transforma en:

Di =3D C + I + G

En la cual Di es la Demanda =E2=80=9Cinterna=E2=80=9D.

Ahora, si estamos interesados en como el consumo depende del aumento = de los ingresos individuales, podemos (debemos) diferenciar la fracci=C3= =B3n que no depende de los mismos: los gastos del gobierno, los resultad= os de expo= rtaciones netas, lo que se recibe como cr=C3=A9ditos y ahorros anteriores, etc. Si= denominamos esa fracci=C3=B3n consumo aut=C3=B3nomo (3D"C_a") y la incorporamos en la f=C3=B3rmula acerca= de la propensi=C3=B3n a consumir, podemos decir que cualquier aumento e= n el consumo depende de la siguiente relaci=C3=B3n:

C =3D A 3D"C_a" + mpc o C =3D 3D"C_a" + bY

La l=C3=ADnea que tal funci=C3=B3n determina en el diagrama anterior = no es la misma que la seria determinada por el equilibrio. Eso debido a = que en esta nueva l=C3=ADnea (azul en el diagrama) un aumento cualquiera= en el ingreso no equivale, por las razones dadas, a un incremento exact= amente similar en el consumo. Este modelo keynesiano simple[24] da origen al diagrama de la cruz keynesiana,[25] introducido originalmente por Paul Samuelson.[<= /span>26]

Si bien lo anterior es una versi=C3=B3n simple del an=C3=A1lisis keyn= esiano,[27] sirve para mostrar tanto el origen del mu= ltiplicador keynesiano o efecto multiplicador del consumo[28]<= /span> [29] como el hecho que la econom=C3=ADa= puede estar en =E2=80=9Cequilibrio=E2=80=9D sin al mismo tiempo lograr = pleno empleo de los recursos econ=C3=B3micos (incluido el trabajo)[30] (estado que es llamado =E2=80=9Cequilibrio keynesiano=E2=80= =9D o =E2=80=9Cequilibrio macroecon=C3=B3mico=E2=80=9D[31] ). (el porque aqu=C3=AD http://w= ww.interzone.com/~cheung/SUM.dir/econthyk1.html )

En relaci=C3=B3n al segundo punto. Considerese esa l=C3=ADnea azul en= el diagrama. Cada punto en ella representa un punto de equilibrio macro= econ=C3=B3mico, es decir, representa una variaci=C3=B3n dada en el consu= mo resultante de un cambio determinado en el ingreso. Desde el punto de = vista keynesiano, cada uno de esos puntos representa un equilibrio entre= lo que se ha producido y puesto en el mercado y lo que se compra (y con= secuentemente, genera los ingresos de la poblaci=C3=B3n). Pero solo uno = de esos puntos corresponde tambi=C3=A9n a la l=C3=ADnea generada por las= condiciones del equilibrio cl=C3=A1sico (el punto en el cual las dos l=C3= =ADneas se cruzan), lo que corresponde a un cierto nivel de ingresos (Y'= ), pero, de hecho, la examinaron del archivo hist=C3=B3rico muestra que = el sistema econ=C3=B3mico no esta generalmente en ese punto. Sigue que l= a condici=C3=B3n "normal" de un sistema econ=C3=B3mico no implica el ple= no uso de los recursos econ=C3=B3micos, incluyendo el pleno empleo [32]

En relaci=C3=B3n al multiplicador del consumo, el argumento central e= s el inverso del de la =E2=80=9Cparadoja del ahorro=E2=80=9D. Si alguien= aumenta su consumo, eso constituir=C3=A1 un ingreso para alg=C3=BAn otr= o, quien tambi=C3=A9n aumentara fraccionalmente su consumo, y as=C3=AD s= ucesivamente.

La forma de calcular ese multiplicador es:

dado que: Di =3D C + I (sin considerar G o NX

y C =3D 3D"C_a" + bY

sigue que:

Y =3D 3D"C_a" + bY + I

si substraemos bY de ambos lados:

Y - bY =3D 3D"C_a"+ I

factorizando Y:

Y (1-b) =3D 3D"C_a"+ I

dividiendo por (1-b) da:

3D"

en el cual 1/1-b es el multiplicador y (3D"C_a=+ I) es el componente aut=C3=B3nomo (proveniente de ahorros y= pr=C3=A9stamos o alg=C3=BAn incremento monetario) sobre el cual el mult= iplicador ejercer=C3=A1 su efecto.

Propensi=C3=B3n a consumir, ahorro e inversi=C3=B3= n.[editar =C2=B7 editar c=C3=B3digo]

As=C3=AD pues, la propensi=C3=B3n marginal a consumir o Con= sumo Marginal es la variaci=C3=B3n del consumo cuando el ingreso dis= ponible var=C3=ADa en una unidad, es decir, la relaci=C3=B3n entre una v= ariaci=C3=B3n en el ingreso y la modificaci=C3=B3n correspondiente en el= gasto en consumo.[33]

Formalizando lo anterior. Keynes postul=C3=B3 la ecuaci=C3=B3n del co= nsumo:

3D"C

En la cual C es el consumo total; Ca es el consumo aut=C3= =B3nomo (aquel consumo que no depende del ingreso), "b" es la propensi=C3= =B3n marginal a consumir, e Yd es el ingreso disponible. (Yd=3D= Yt-T+TR, donde Yt es el ingreso total, T son los impuestos y TR son = las transferencias).

Si la propensi=C3=B3n a consumir ("b") es d=C3=A9bil, las oportunidad= es de inversi=C3=B3n no son atrayentes (dado que quienes invierten busca= n ganancia. Una demanda baja reduce la posibilidad de obtenerla), consec= uentemente, una parte del ingreso que no se consume tampoco se invertir=C3= =A1 y la demanda efectiva se reducir=C3=A1, por lo que la econom=C3=ADa = se contraer=C3=A1 y el nivel de empleo descender=C3=A1.[34] De manera que como el ahorro y la inversi=C3=B3n no siempre est=C3=A1= n en equilibrio,[35] al estado le corresponde actuar par= a asegurar el nivel de inversi=C3=B3n necesario para multiplicar la acti= vidad econ=C3=B3mica y garantizar el pleno empleo.

En t=C3=A9rminos pr=C3=A1cticos, y para contrarrestar la espiral nega= tiva de los '30, Keynes propon=C3=ADa que en momentos de estancamiento e= con=C3=B3mico, el estado tiene la obligaci=C3=B3n de estimular la demand= a con mayores gastos econ=C3=B3micos, de manera que consider=C3=B3 la pol=C3= =ADtica fiscal como un instrumento decisivo.

Te=C3=B3ricamente, hay tres maneras que el Estado puede financiar eso= s gastos: 1.- Aumentar los impuestos. 2.- Imprimir m=C3=A1s dinero y 3.- Endeudamiento fiscal = (uso de los dineros que la poblaci=C3=B3n est=C3=A1 ahorrando). Keynes b= asa sus sugerencias sobre un dinero con valor relativamente estable, por= lo que no es partidario del incremento indiscriminado en su "producci=C3= =B3n".[36] Aunque para Keynes el incremento de impuestos= era leg=C3=ADtimo si se orientaba al aumento de la inversi=C3=B3n p=C3=BA= blica y de la demanda, consideraba m=C3=A1s apropiado financiar el incre= mento del gasto fiscal a trav=C3=A9s del endeudamiento,[37] dedicando los impuestos recaudados al pago -posterior- de la deuda.<= sup id=3D"cite_ref-38" class=3D"reference">[38] El otro lado de esa pol=C3=ADtica es que el Estado d= ebe pagar esa deuda cuando sus ingresos aumenten, debido al incremento p= or ingresos de impuestos cuando eventualmente haya un auge (n=C3=B3tese:= ese aumento en los ingresos se debe al auge o expansi=C3=B3n en la econ= om=C3=ADa, etc, no a un incremento en la tasa de impuestos). En otras pa= labras, la propuesta de Keynes es que el Estado debe jugar en general un= papel contrac=C3=ADclico en la econom=C3=ADa: estimulando la demanda en= momentos de recesi=C3=B3n y restringi=C3=A9ndola en momentos de auge. D= e esta manera, los ciclos econ=C3=B3micos se= aminoran y no se transforman en crisis.

Tasas de inter=C3=A9s y rentabilidad[editar =C2=B7 editar c=C3=B3digo]

La teor=C3=ADa cl=C3=A1sica supon=C3=ADa que las leyes del mercado ha= r=C3=ADan mover las tasas de inter=C3=A9s al punto adecuado para garanti= zar el rendimiento de las inversiones, pero tambi=C3=A9n en este caso el= dogma cl=C3=A1sico apenas cubr=C3=ADa casos excepcionales (generalmente= , ese en el cual el capital esta lo suficientemente disperso como para e= star sometido a competencia entre sus poseedores y todos= consideran que invertir es mejor que mantener dinero en los bolsillos),= en tanto la realidad funciona generalmente en otra forma:

  • La preferencia por la liquidez, lleva a la gente a atesorar o= a tratar de tener dinero efectivo o disponible, Pero esa preferencia po= r la liquidez puede llevar a acciones da=C3=B1inas a la conveniencia eco= n=C3=B3mica general. Por ejemplo, si hay incertidumbre o los precios dec= aen fuertemente, la poblaci=C3=B3n en general puede preferir mantener su= dinero =E2=80=9Cen la mano=E2=80=9D, tendencia que, si se generaliza, p= uede llevar a una profundizaci=C3=B3n seria de la disminuci=C3=B3n de la= demanda por bienes y servicios o incluso a un p=C3=A1nico bancario. A= s=C3=AD, "la tasa de inter=C3=A9s es el premio que tiene que ofrecerse p= ara inducir a la gente para conservar su riqueza en cualquier otra forma= distinta al dinero atesorado".[39= ]
  • Igualmente problem=C3=A1tico desde el punto de vista general es el r= esultado de la acumulaci=C3=B3n de grandes cantidades de dinero en pocas= manos. Esos =E2=80=9Crentistas=E2=80=9D llegan a estar en una situaci=C3= =B3n que les permite demandar intereses excesivos por el uso de ese dine= ro, lo que tiende a disminuir la inversi=C3=B3n y consecuentemente, depr= ime (a=C3=BAn en t=C3=A9rminos cl=C3=A1sicos.- ver cita de Carlos A. Rod= r=C3=ADguez) la econom=C3=ADa en general.

Si las autoridades monetarias fallan en reducir las tasas de inter=C3= =A9s por debajo de la eficiencia marginal del capital, la econom=C3=ADa = se contraer=C3=A1 irremediablemente, aunque la causa de fondo del des=C3= =A1nimo de la inversi=C3=B3n no es el nivel de las tasas de inter=C3=A9s= sino la ca=C3=ADda de la rentabilidad. Para Keynes, finalmente, una recesi=C3=B3n "= es el resultado del cambio c=C3=ADclico de la eficiencia marginal del ca= pital".[40]

Co= nsideraciones pol=C3=ADticas[editar =C2=B7 <= a href=3D"/w/index.php?title=3DKeynesianismo&action=3Dedit&secti= on=3D5" title=3D"Editar secci=C3=B3n: Consideraciones pol=C3=ADticas">ed= itar c=C3=B3digo]

Dentro de la coyuntura hist=C3=B3rica, econ=C3=B3mica y pol=C3=ADtica= , el keynesianismo =E2=80=94y sus proyectos consecuentes como el Estado de Bienestar y el desarrollismo=E2=80=94 dio a los dirigentes = mundiales la oportunidad de salvar la democracia, cuya existencia lleg=C3=B3 a verse amena= zada debido al auge de las econom=C3=ADas socialistas, producto de la in= capacidad del liberalismo cl=C3=A1sico de resolver la crisis.[41] Debido a esta raz=C3=B3n los principios del keynesianismo fuero= n aplicados de una u otra manera en gran parte de los Estados occidental= es desde el final de la Segunda Guerra Mundial hasta que en los a=C3=B1os '70= un nuev= o tipo de crisis llev=C3=B3 a su cuestionamiento[42]= y el resurgimiento de aproximaciones cl=C3=A1sicas bajo el neoliberalismo.[43]

"Durante los a=C3=B1os de guerra, Keynes tuvo un papel decisivo en la= s negociaciones que iban a dar forma al orden econ=C3=B3mico internacion= al de la post-guerra. En 1944, dirigi=C3=B3 la delegaci=C3=B3n brit=C3=A1= nica en la conferencia de Bretton Woods en los Estados Unidos. En la con= ferencia jug=C3=B3 un papel importante en la planificaci=C3=B3n del Banc= o Mundial y el Fondo Monetario Internacional".[44]

Si bien las repercusiones pol=C3=ADtico-econ=C3=B3micas de Keynes y v= arios de sus partidarios son variadas, algunos creen que la idea del key= nesianismo es salvar al capitalismo o mantenerlo estable.[45]<= /sup> Desde el lado opuesto, pero quiz=C3=A1s con la misma intenci=C3=B3= n y similares mecanismos ret=C3=B3ricos, Keynes es descrito como siendo = "mucho m=C3=A1s que un keynesiano. Sobre todo fue la figura extraordinar= iamente perniciosa y maliciosa que hemos examinado en este cap=C3=ADtulo= . Un encantador pero ambicioso estatista maquiav=C3=A9lico, quien person= ificaba algunas de las tendencias e instituciones m=C3=A1s malignas del = siglo veinte"[46] Quiz=C3=A1s con una visi=C3=B3n un poc= o m=C3=A1s medida Waligosrky aduce que esas pol=C3=ADticas fueron adopta= das: "como una resguardo contra el poder del mercado para socavar nuestr= as instituciones pol=C3=ADticas y sociales m=C3=A1s valiosas...(..).. un= mercado totalmente libre es definitivamente no el mejor para una democr= acia, un mercado sin regulaciones no garantiza justicia ni prosperidad..= ."= [47]

Desde el punto de vista del propio Keynes, y a nivel de la Econom=C3=ADa pol=C3=ADtica el punto central de su teor=C3=ADa se = basa en una percepci=C3=B3n derivada tanto de Marx[= 48] como de Sch= umpeter.[49] Ambos pensadores consideran que la cris= is es, en el mediano y largo plazo, una parte intr=C3=ADnseca del sistem= a capitalista (y que eventualmente lo destruiran). Ambos pensadores perm= iten entonces a Keynes sugerir que el sistema delineado por Adam Smith solo puede referirs= e a una etapa y momento espec=C3=ADfico en el cual el capitalismo se estaba desarrolland= o pero que en general, ese desarrollo no puede existir sin la crisis y n= o puede dar prosperidad a unos si es que no se est=C3=A1 explotando<= /a> a otros.[50] Ir=C3=B3nicamente, el keynesianismo pod= r=C3=ADa retornar la acusaci=C3=B3n que los partidarios de la Escuela Austriaca le hacen: "podr=C3=ADamos resumir la tesis de = Hazlitt en q= ue las falacias y los errores econ=C3=B3micos provienen de fijar nuestra= atenci=C3=B3n en los efectos que una medida econ=C3=B3mica tiene a cort= o plazo y sobre un reducido sector."[51]

Pero tal respuesta, a pesar de ser correcta, podr=C3=ADa quiz=C3=A1s = llevar a un equ=C3=ADvoco: si aceptamos que las crisis son parte inheren= te del capitalismo, la eliminaci=C3=B3n de ellas demanda medidas que vay= an m=C3=A1s all=C3=A1 que ese sistema. En sus palabras "solo el Estado p= uede restaurar los equilibrios fundamentales", y la participaci=C3=B3n d= el Estado implica movimiento hacia el socialismo. El problema =E2=80=94por lo menos para a= lgunos=E2=80=94 es que por un lado =C3=A9l desea que esa transformaci=C3= =B3n sea democr=C3=A1tica[52] y por el otro, cree que pa= ra eso se necesita un nivel de comprensi=C3=B3n y control sobre la econo= m=C3=ADa que, en su tiempo por lo menos, no exist=C3=ADa. El cambio del = sistema de propiedad de los medios de producci=C3=B3n no basta para reso= lver los problemas de la econom=C3=ADa. Keynes dijo en 1926, como respue= sta a la proposici=C3=B3n de que lo que se necesitaba era la "insurreci=C3= =B3n proletaria": "Nos hace falta, m=C3=A1s que nunca, un esquema cohere= nte... Todos los partidos pol=C3=ADticos tienen sus or=C3=ADgenes en ide= as del pasado, no en nuevas y ninguno m=C3=A1s notoriamente como los de = los marxistas. No es necesario debatir las sutilezas de lo que justifica= r=C3=ADa a un hombre promover su evangelio por la fuerza, porque nadie t= iene ese evangelio. El pr=C3=B3ximo movimiento es con la cabeza, pero pr= imero debemos esperar[53] Keynes no puede pensar de otra= manera. Si la percepci=C3=B3n de que la descripci=C3=B3n de Smith y las= formalizaciones posteriores corresponden a un momento y lugar particula= r es correcta, sigue que las leyes generales de la econom=C3=ADa, especi= almente la "ingenier=C3=ADa econ=C3=B3mica" (esa rama que se refiere a l= as decisiones pr=C3=A1cticas, del d=C3=ADa a d=C3=ADa, empresa por empre= sa, etc.) est=C3=A1n por descubrirse; careci=C3=A9ndose de formalizacion= es que, en su tiempo por lo menos, no exist=C3=ADan (ver debate so= bre el c=C3=A1lculo econ=C3=B3mico en el socialismo). Por ejemplo, l= os trabajos de de Wassily Leontief, Simon Kuznets, etc, todos fundamentales para la econometr=C3=AD= a todav=C3=ADa no hab=C3=ADan sido publicados en esa fecha. (Las mis= mas percepciones de Keynes no fueron formalizadas (matematizadas) hasta = los aportes de, primero, John Hicks y, posteriormente, en EEUU, Paul Samuelson.

La propuesta que Keynes eventualmente produjo -llamada socialista y s= iniestra por los partidarios de la Escuela Austriaca[54]= es la eliminaci=C3=B3n del poder de la escasez del dinero, situaci=C3=B3= n usada y exacerbada, en su opini=C3=B3n, por la acci=C3=B3n de los "ren= tiers" (especuladores, financistas o capitalistas) a trav=C3=A9s de la a= cumulaci=C3=B3n que les permite demandar altas tasas de inter=C3=A9s por= su uso, lo que lleva, en su opini=C3=B3n, al "poder progresivamente opr= esor de los capitalistas para explotar el valor de la escasez del capita= l" (ver cita anterior). Esa eliminaci=C3=B3n se basa en dos medidas fund= amentales: el abandono definitivo del oro como moneda y su reemplazo con el sist= ema de divisa moderna, que= se podr=C3=ADa llamar dinero fiduciario pero que puede ser vista como un pa= so hacia la concepci=C3=B3n del dinero como unidad de cuenta.[55] La otra medida complementaria fue poner el rol de emisor del dinero = y control sobre la Tasa de inter=C3=A9s en el estado a trav=C3=A9s del= banco central.[56] Estas propuestas fueron generalmente adoptadas a= nivel mundial con posterioridad a la Segunda Guerra Mundial a nivel de = los pa=C3=ADses, pero su corolario l=C3=B3gico (la adopci=C3=B3n de un s= istema monetario com=C3=BAn independiente de los gobiernos individuales<= sup id=3D"cite_ref-57" class=3D"reference">[57] no lo fue. - (ver Bancor y Acuerdos de Bretton Woods)

El propio Keynes no ve esa propuesta de acci=C3=B3n estatal -de utili= zaci=C3=B3n de los ahorros privados a beneficio com=C3=BAn- como novedos= a o extraordinaria en si misma. Por el contrario, es algo -que en su opi= ni=C3=B3n- todos -los economistas- saben y aceptan, solo que es aplicada= en casos excepcionales.[58] El solo propone utilizar es= a aproximaci=C3=B3n m=C3=A1s generalmente: =E2=80=9CEso es por lo cual l= a guerra ha siempre causado una actividad industrial intensa. En el pasa= do la finanza ortodoxa ha considerado la guerra como la =C3=BAnica excus= a leg=C3=ADtima de crear empleo a trav=C3=A9s del gasto gubernamental. U= d, Sr Presidente, habi=C3=A9ndose librado de tales preconcepciones, tien= e libertad para utilizar en el inter=C3=A9s de la paz y prosperidad esas= t=C3=A9cnicas que con anterioridad s=C3=B3lo se les ha permitido servir= los prop=C3=B3sitos de la guerra y la destrucci=C3=B3n=E2=80=9D (J.M. K= eynes: Carta abierta a Roosevelt, punto 8). Lo que s=C3=AD considera esp= ecial es la dilucidaci=C3=B3n de las relaciones econ=C3=B3micas que sust= entan el funcionamiento de la econom=C3=ADa. Principal entre esas es el = papel que juegan el dinero, las tasas de inter=C3=A9s y la demanda. Para= Keynes, tal aclaraci=C3=B3n y subsecuente traspaso al poder del estado = del control de ambos factores llevar=C3=A1 a la desaparici=C3=B3n de los= =E2=80=9Crentiers=E2=80=9D (o por lo menos de ese aspecto de la funci=C3= =B3n empresarial) lo que a su vez permitir=C3=ADa el uso completo de los= factores de producci=C3=B3n.[59]

En la actualidad algunos partidarios del neoliberalismo a=C3=BAn abog= an por la vuelta al patr=C3=B3n oro. Alan Greenspan, por ejemplo, alega que "un an= tagonismo casi hist=C3=A9rico hacia el patr=C3=B3n oro une a todos los e= statalistas. Parecen darse cuenta, tal vez con mayor claridad y sutileza= que muchos liberales, que el oro y la libertad econ=C3=B3mica son insep= arables, que el patr=C3=B3n oro es un instrumento del laissez-faire, y que cada uno implica y requiere el otro.[60] (curi= osamente, al hacer esto parecen olvidar que von Mises en su cr=C3=ADtica= a Keynes sugiere que "El dinero es solamente el medio de intercambio ge= neralmente empleado"[61] ). Para ellos, la decisi=C3=B3n de= Bretton Woods no fue una falla de aceptaci=C3=B3n del keynesianismo y l= a imposici=C3=B3n de los intereses de EE.UU. sino resultado las acciones= de Harry D. White, representante de EEUU en esas conversaciones y acusa= do de ser un agente comunista,[62<= span class=3D"corchete-llamada">] lo que se utiliza par= a sugerir que tal decisi=C3=B3n fue resultado de un complot gigantesco. = Aparentemente as=C3=AD como algunos reducen todo a trav=C3=A9s de un "an= =C3=A1lisis de clases" a una conspiraci=C3=B3n burguesa, otros lo reduce= n, a trav=C3=A9s del an=C3=A1lisis de las conspiraciones, a la= acci=C3=B3n del "estatismo".

Cr=C3=ADticas[= editar =C2=B7 editar c=C3=B3digo]=

Wil= helm R=C3=B6pke escribi=C3=B3: =E2=80=9CPuede creerse que hay =C3=A9= pocas en las que medidas vigorosas para aumentar la oferta monetaria imp= edir=C3=A1n el desastre; pero una figura cient=C3=ADfica tan destacada c= omo Keynes no puede impunemente extender el manto de su autoridad sobre = la propensi=C3=B3n cr=C3=B3nica de todos los Gobiernos hacia la inflaci=C3= =B3n. Puede creerse que en ciertas circunstancias un aumento de la deuda= p=C3=BAblica es el mal menor; pero tal medida temporal no puede impunem= ente transformarse en principio de car=C3=A1cter general."

A fin, aparentemente, de terminar con esa impunidad, R=C3=B6pke alega= [63] que =E2=80=9CSe puede descubrir en el mecanismo del= ahorro problemas que exigen atenci=C3=B3n especial,... pero no se puede= impunemente despojar a los hombres del sentimiento de que es bueno ahor= rar, guardar una reserva para ellos y sus familias, en vez de gastarlo t= odo y despu=C3=A9s pedir ayuda al Estado =E2=80=93el mayor de todos los = gastadores- en =C3=A9pocas de necesidad.=E2=80=9D =E2=80=9CKeynes acostu= mbr=C3=B3 a una nueva generaci=C3=B3n a utilizar una l=C3=B3gica econ=C3= =B3mica que gira =C3=BAnicamente en torno a c=C3=B3mo mantener la =E2=80= =98demanda efectiva=E2=80=99 en la forma m=C3=A1s segura al nivel m=C3=A1= s alto posible, mientras que el verdadero problema de la posguerra era e= l de c=C3=B3mo frenar a tiempo una prosperidad inflacionista.=E2=80=9D[64= ] =E2=80=9CUn hecho de la =C3=A9poca de posguerra, tan = singular como comprometedor para el keynesianismo,.. La mayor=C3=ADa de = los Gobiernos, y quiz=C3=A1s la mayor=C3=ADa de los economistas, han adq= uirido penosamente conciencia de lo inadecuado de las ense=C3=B1anzas de= Keynes para enfrentarse con la inflaci=C3=B3n cr=C3=B3nica de los a=C3=B1= os de la posguerra;=E2=80=9D R=C3=B6pke concluye: "Saber si las aportaci= ones de Keynes a la teor=C3=ADa econ=C3=B3mica y a la t=C3=A9cnica econ=C3= =B3mica son correctas y en qu=C3=A9 medida lo son, constituir=C3=A1 toda= v=C3=ADa durante mucho tiempo tema de discusi=C3=B3n. Pero que en el niv= el superior de la filosof=C3=ADa social y de la =C3=A9tica pol=C3=ADtica= estaba completamente equivocado, eso se ve ya con suficiente claridad=E2= =80=9D.

Otras cr=C3=ADticas vienen de varios economistas, incluyendo algunos = que se consideran fuertemente influidos por la visi=C3=B3n de Keynes. As= =C3=AD, por ejemplo, J.K. Galbraith da tres elementos para tal cr=C3= =ADtica:

  • El Keynesianismo no ofrece un remedio generalmente aceptable para la= inflaci=C3=B3n. A diferencia de lo que R=C3=B6pke sugiere, el problema = no es falta de propuestas,[65] [66] [67]<= /span> el problema son las consecuencias pol=C3=ADticas de tal= es propuestas.[68] [69] Siendo expl=C3=AD= cito: se alega que el problema es que los gobernantes encuentran dif=C3=AD= cil -en =C3=A9pocas de prosperidad- poner en pr=C3=A1ctica las pol=C3=AD= ticas antic=C3=ADclicas que el modelo sugiere (aumentar las tasas de int= er=C3=A9s, controlar precios, salarios, restringir el circulante, etc) e= n la medida que tales propuestas ocasionan repercusiones que ponen en pe= ligro los prospectos pol=C3=ADticos de los gobernantes.[70] Adicionalmente se sugiere que en ciertas circuntancias el gobierno p= uede encontrar ventajoso la inflaci=C3=B3n, en la medida que implica el = traspaso de recursos econ=C3=B3micos desde la poblaci=C3=B3n al Estado.<= sup id=3D"cite_ref-71" class=3D"reference">[71] Sin embargo, es generalmente considerado que para el= Keynesianismo la inflaci=C3=B3n es negativa[72] y deses= tabilizante[73] en la medida que el aumento del circulan= te m=C3=A1s all=C3=A1 de los par=C3=A1metros marcados por la relaci=C3=B3= n =C3=B3ptima entre tasa de inter=C3=A9s y tasa de ganancia significa no= solo traspaso de recursos sino tambi=C3=A9n p=C3=A9rdida de la capacida= d estatal de controlar mecanismos financieros (durante per=C3=ADodos exp= ansionarios el circulante aumenta -al menos parcialmente- a trav=C3=A9s = de la expansi=C3=B3n del cr=C3=A9dito privado, lo que fuerza al Estado a= tomar medidas impopulares o dejar que la emisi=C3=B3n de dinero escape = de su control), lo que termina amenazando la situaci=C3=B3n econ=C3=B3mi= ca de la sociedad en general.[74] (para todo esto, ver <= a href=3D"/wiki/Nicol%C3%A1s_Kaldor" title=3D"Nicol=C3=A1s Kaldor">Nicol= =C3=A1s Kaldor: =E2=80=9CThe Scourge of Monetarism=E2=80=9D -Oxford = University Press, 1982.)
  • El Keynesianismo no ha demostrado ser efectivo en la soluci=C3=B3n d= e los problemas de falta de desarrollo econ=C3=B3mico. A pes= ar que los pa=C3=ADses desarrollados no han sido muy eficientes en cumpl= ir los compromisos adquiridos, han hecho lo suficiente como para demostr= ar que la mera presencia o transferencia de capitales no es suficiente p= ara producir ese desarrollo. Elementos tales como instituciones y cultur= a pol=C3=ADtica, existencia (o falta) de infraestructuras, personal capa= citado, etc. tambi=C3=A9n tienen un papel importante. En consecuencia, e= l keynesianismo lleg=C3=B3 a ser visto por algunos como una pol=C3=ADtic= a de pa=C3=ADses ricos.
  • Keynes no expuso sus ideas tan clara y sistem=C3=A1ticamente como se= r=C3=ADa deseable. Se encuentran ambig=C3=BCedades en sus obras. Por eje= mplo, a veces Keynes habla como si lo que desea es avanzar hacia el soci= alismo. En otras ocasiones, se expresa contrario a esa visi=C3=B3n y bus= ca demostrar las ventajas que sus propuestas tienen para el capitalismo.= En consecuencia, hay diferentes percepciones de lo que se podr=C3=ADa l= lamar keynesianismo. Galbraith resume este problema diciendo que se lleg= a al keynesianismo desde el conservadurismo y se termina siendo acusado de ser <= a href=3D"/wiki/Comunista" title=3D"Comunista" class=3D"mw-redirect">com= unista. En este sentido Keynes mismo parece haber tenido una concien= cia social y la impaciencia del hombre pr=C3=A1ctico[75]= , am=C3=A9n de la comprensi=C3=B3n que sin resolver los problemas socia= les se llegar=C3=ADa a una situaci=C3=B3n de profunda inestabilidad pol=C3= =ADtica. Por otra parte, no ten=C3=ADa ning=C3=BAn problema en lucha de clases me encuentra en el lado de la burgues=C3=ADa= educada". Este problema de ambig=C3=BCedad se extiende tambi=C3=A9n a c= onceptos econ=C3=B3micos.

Desarroll= os posteriores[editar =C2=B7 editar c=C3=B3digo]

Esas ambig=C3=BCedades que se han mencionado han dado origen a difere= ntes interpretaciones de las sugerencias de Keynes. Adicionalmente, el d= esarrollo de las teor=C3=ADas econ=C3=B3micas ha llevado a una profundiz= aci=C3=B3n y especificaci=C3=B3n de algunos de los conceptos empleados o= riginalmente.

Una de las primeras "interpretaciones" de la obra de Keynes fue la Finanza fu= ncional propuesta por Abba Lerner,[76] quien sugiere el abandono de = la tentativa de mantener un equilibrio econ=C3=B3mico y su reemplazo con= la propuesta que el objetivo principal de las pol=C3=ADticas econ=C3=B3micas estatales es promover e= l crecimiento y desarrollo econ=C3=B3mico[77] (ver A= porte de Abba Lerner).

Entre las interpretaciones m=C3=A1s conocidas se encuentra la llamada= "s=C3=ADntesis cl=C3=A1sico-keynesiana" o s=C3=ADntesis neocl=C3=A1sica, la cual busca reconcil= iar las percepciones keynesianas con las de la escuela n= eocl=C3=A1sica[78] (que inicialmente se consideraban = contrapuestas[79] ) -espec=C3=ADficamente, el trabajo de= Arthur Pigou,= considerado el padre de la Econom=C3=ADa del bienestar = y las percepciones del Teor=C3=ADa del equilib= rio general de L=C3=A9on Walras - por parte de autores neokeynesianos tales como= Paul Samuelso= n; John Hicks,= Alvin Hansen = y Franco= Modigliani. Los neokeynesianos buscaron tambi=C3=A9n integrar la co= ncepci=C3=B3n de Alfred Marshall acerca de un periodo de mercado,[80] sugiriendo que las teor=C3=ADas de los neocl=C3=A1sicos se apli= can al largo plazo econ=C3=B3mico mientras que las de Keynes se r= efieren al corto plazo. El centro te=C3=B3rico formal de esta apr= oximaci=C3=B3n son el Modelo tradicional o basado en el modelo IS-LM, introducid= o por Hicks[81] y el modelo de la Cruz Keynesiana= , introducido por Samuelson,= [82] tambi=C3=A9n llamado del multiplicador simple.[83<= span class=3D"corchete-llamada">] [84] = Esta visi=C3=B3n contin=C3=BAa siendo utilizada incluso en el presente c= omo fundaci=C3=B3n de los cursos de introducci=C3=B3n a la macroeconom=C3= =ADa.[85] [86] [87]

Desde esta aproximaci=C3=B3n se origin=C3=B3 una de las versiones de = la Nueva Econom=C3=ADa del bienestar,[88] [89] a partir de una propuesta de Samuelson, basado en la perce= pci=C3=B3n de que =E2=80=9Cning=C3=BAn sistema de precios descentralizad= o puede servir para determinar =C3=B3ptimamente los niveles de consumo c= olectivo=E2=80=9D lo que ocasiona la =E2=80=9Cimposibilidad de una soluc= i=C3=B3n espont=C3=A1nea descentralizada=E2=80=9D a los c=C3=A1lculos en= vueltos para establecer un uso =C3=B3ptimo de esos bienes.[90]= (ver Condici=C3=B3n de Samuelson).

La sugerencia central de esta aproximaci=C3=B3n puede ser resumida di= ciendo que la funci=C3=B3n central de las pol=C3=ADticas econ=C3=B3micas= estatales es mantener un sistema econ=C3=B3mico en el punto en el cual = las l=C3=ADneas de la cruz keynesiana se cruzan. Si esa condici=C3=B3n s= e cumple, el sector privado, y la econom=C3=ADa en general, funcionar=C3= =A1n eficientemente.

La posici=C3=B3n alternativa temprana es el "postkeynesianismo"= , que se origin=C3=B3 en el aporte de Joan Robinson, Piero Sraffa, Paul Davidson, Nicholas Kaldor, Michal Kalecki, y otros; quiene= s enfatizan el papel que la incertidumbre tiene en asuntos econ=C3=B3mic= os, especialmente los relacionados con inversi=C3=B3n. Los postkeynesian= os consideran v=C3=A1lida la cr=C3=ADtica fundamental de Keynes al conce= pto neocl=C3=A1sico de equilibrio de largo plazo, por lo cual critican f= uertemente la posici=C3=B3n neokeynesiana.[= 91] [92] [93] Adem=C3=A1s, muchos de ellos consideran qu= e la "Teor=C3=ADa General" no ha sido explorada en plenitud y que repaga= r=C3=ADa abundantemente un esfuerzo sistem=C3=A1tico en ese sentido.

=

Si bien esta posici=C3=B3n es minoritaria, es una de las fuentes prin= cipales de la Econom=C3=ADa heterodoxa, y sus criticismos[94] han dado lugar a algunos de los debates m=C3=A1s interes= antes y complejos en la teor=C3=ADa econ=C3=B3mica de la segunda mitad d= el siglo XX[95] (ver, por ejemplo, Debate de= las dos Cambridge).

Desde esta perspectiva, y a partir de una propuesta de Kaldor, se ori= gin=C3=B3 la otra rama de la "Nueva Econom=C3=ADa del bienestar" (Eficiencia de Kaldor e Hicks o criterio de Scitovsky<= sup id=3D"cite_ref-96" class=3D"reference">[96] ).

Los postkeynesianos utilizan modelos que provienen tanto del ya menci= onado Abba Lerner como otros provenientes de Dudley Dillard[97] y, m=C3=A1s recientemente, de R. L Wray,[98] los que= se integran en la Teor=C3=ADa Monetaria Mo= derna.

Posteriormente, y a partir del ya mencionado an=C3=A1lisis de Leijonh= ufvud[99] acerca de la incertidumbre, el equilibrio y la= racionalidad y profundizado por David Colander,[100] el post-keynesianismo se revigoriza y transforma, dando origen a de= sarrollos que llevan a la llamada Ec= onom=C3=ADa de Complejidad.[= 101]

Espec=C3=ADficamente la profundizaci=C3=B3n del cuestionamiento de Ke= ynes a la supuesta racionalidad de los actores econ=C3=B3micos[102] condujo o facilit=C3=B3 el desarrollo de la teor=C3=ADa de= la racionalidad limitada[10= 3] y, eventualmente, a= la econom=C3=ADa conductual.= [104]

M=C3=A1s recientemente -y a partir de algunos desarrollos que, por un= lado, bordean en lo sorprendente[105] pero por el otr= o corresponden a desarrollos te=C3=B3ricos (ver, por ejemplo: Aporte de John B. Taylor)= - aparece la "nueva s=C3=ADntesis keynesiana" o Nueva= Econom=C3=ADa Keynesiana. Los nuevos keynesianos aceptan el concept= o neocl=C3=A1sico de racionalidad y de un equilibrio en el largo plazo p= ero da un papel central a la demanda agregada en el corto, lo que enfatiza el = papel de los fundamentos microecon=C3=B3micos en el consumo y la inversi=C3= =B3n. Los partidarios de esta escuela se ven como proveyendo soluciones = microecon=C3=B3micas para algunos de los problemas m=C3=A1s dif=C3=ADcil= es en la concepci=C3=B3n de Keynes, por ejemplo, el de la "pegajosidad" = o "inercia" de sueldos y precios[106] (Keynes apunta q= ue hay una tendencia tanto en salarios como costos, etc, a mantenerse en= un cierto nivel, ciertamente a no decaer. Esta tendencia fuerza la mani= pulaci=C3=B3n de otras variables a fin de obtener las relaciones =C3=B3p= timas y dificulta la obtenci=C3=B3n de esos resultados)

Los representantes m=C3=A1s conocidos de esta escuela son (aparte del= ya mencionado John B. Taylor) Gregory Mankiw; Joseph E. Stig= litz; Ben Bern= anke. Se cuentan adem=C3=A1s David Romer, Olivier Blanchard, Nobuh= iro Kiyotaki, y Michael Woodford.

Todo lo anterior ha conducido, a partir de la Crisis de liquidez de septiembre de 2008, a la llamad= a Resurgencia keynesiana[107] [108= ] introducida por el trabajo de Paul Krugman [109] = y Jame= s K. Galbraith.[110]

Enlaces externos= [editar =C2=B7 editar c=C3=B3digo]

Notas[editar =C2=B7 editar c=C3=B3digo]

  1. =E2=86=91 "Keynesianis= mo"; Econom=C3=ADa. Diccionario Enciclop=C3=A9dico 6:212. Barcelo= na: Planeta, 1980.
  2. =E2=86=91 Esencialment= e, condiciones de competencia perfecta, que requerir=C3=ADan no solo l= a ausencia de todo tipo de organizaciones gremiales o sindicales (no sol= o de trabajadores pero tambi=C3=A9n de empleadores, incluyendo asociacio= nes de capital social, las llamadas sociedades an=C3=B3nimas o limitadas= o cualquier otra forma de monopolio u o= ligopsonio), pero tambi=C3=A9n informaci=C3=B3n perfecta sobre el me= rcado y alta flexibilidad tanto de flujos de capital como de trabajo y h= abilidades. Obviamente esa, por deseable que sea, no es una situaci=C3=B3= n real. Por ejemplo, la ausencia de personal calificado dificulta la cre= aci=C3=B3n de empresas =E2=80=9Cde avanzada=E2=80=9D en pa=C3=ADses en l= os cuales hay altos niveles de desempleo y en los cuales, teor=C3=A9tica= mente, seria altamente conveniente invertir en esas =C3=A1reas a fin de = tomar ventaja de esa abundancia de trabajo: las habilidades de los traba= jadores no son libre y universalmente transferibles de un tipo o =C3=A1r= ea de trabajo a otro. Sugiere que puede haber ausencia de trabajadores d= isponibles en un =C3=A1rea econ=C3=B3mica aun cuando haya un alto nivel = de desempleo. (Ver tambi=C3=A9n debate sobre Asimetr=C3=ADa de l= a informaci=C3=B3n)
  3. =E2=86=91 Keynes escri= be: "son solo un caso especial... que asume una situaci=C3=B3n que es el= punto l=C3=ADmite de las posibles situaciones de equilibrio". Teor=C3=AD= a General, etc., primer cap=C3=ADtulo.
  4. =E2=86=91 Ra=C3=BAl Prebisch= (1947). Introducci=C3=B3n a Keynes: 25. M=C3=A9xico: Fondo d= e Cultura Econ=C3=B3mica
  5. =E2=86=91 John Stuart = Mill (1844): " Lo que un pa=C3=ADs necesita para hacerlo m=C3=A1s rico, = nunca es el consumo, sino la producci=C3=B3n...." en = Essays on some unsettled Questions of Political Economy ESSAY II. OF= THE INFLUENCE OF CONSUMPTION ON PRODUCTION.
  6. =E2=86=91 John Stuart = Mill (1844): "El caso, sin embargo, es diferente despu=C3=A9s de la sepa= raci=C3=B3n de los empleos. En una sociedad civilizada, un solo producto= r se limita a la producci=C3=B3n de una mercanc=C3=ADa, o un peque=C3=B1= o n=C3=BAmero de ellas, y su prosperidad depende, no solamente en la can= tidad de la mercanc=C3=ADa que ha elaborado y almac=C3=A9nado, pero a su= =C3=A9xito en encontrar compradores para ese producto.".."Es cierto, po= r lo tanto, que, para cada productor o distribuidor, es importante una g= ran demanda, una circulaci=C3=B3n ligera, un consumo r=C3=A1pido, de las= mercanc=C3=ADas que vende en su tienda o produce en su f=C3=A1brica. El= comerciante cuya tienda se llena de clientes, que pueden disponer de un= producto casi al mismo momento en que se ha producido, hace grandes gan= ancias, mientras que su vecino, con un capital igual, pero menos cliente= s, gana relativamente poco." en Essays on some unsett= led Questions of Political Economy ESSAY II. OF THE INFLUENCE OF CON= SUMPTION ON PRODUCTION.
  7. =E2=86=91 Keynes (Teor= =C3=ADa general, cap. 21) describe esto como la diferencia entre una teo= r=C3=ADa del equilibrio estacionario y una acerca del: ""equilbrio cambi= ante"- significando por esto =C3=BAltimo una teor=C3=ADa de un sistema e= n el cual las percepciones acerca del futuro son capaces de influir la s= ituaci=C3=B3n presente". (ver tambi=C3=A9n nota m=C3=A1s abajo)
  8. =E2=86=91 Keynes escri= be: =E2=80=9CWe have seen above that the marginal efficiency of capital[= 1] depends, not only on the existing abundance or scarcity of capital-go= ods and the current cost of production of capital-goods, but also on cur= rent expectations as to the future yield of capital-goods.=E2=80=9D (Teo= r=C3=ADa General: cap 22. Ver tambi=C3=A9n cap 5) Quiz=C3=A1s sea conven= iente mantener presente en relaci=C3=B3n a esa visi=C3=B3n que Keynes -a= pesar de dar clases de econom=C3=ADa en la universidad de Cambridge no = era solamente un economista acad=C3=A9mico. Lleg=C3=B3 a ser gerente gen= eral de una de las empresas de seguros m=C3=A1s grandes en Inglaterra en= esa =C3=A9poca, trabajo que le hizo millonario. La percepci=C3=B3n que = lo anterior le dio sobre los motivos y razones de empresarios en general= informan sus teor=C3=ADas
  9. =E2=86=91 Carlos A. Ro= dr=C3=ADguez: En el modelo cl=C3=A1sico =E2=80=9CPara la ganancia espera= da los gastos de inversi=C3=B3n var=C3=ADan inversamente con la tasa de = inter=C3=A9s. Por ejemplo, una empresa con un gran n=C3=BAmero de proyec= tos de inversi=C3=B3n que ofrecen rendimientos esperados variados, puede= establecer un rango de esos proyectos de acuerdo al nivel de ganancias = esperadas. En este caso, la tasa de inter=C3=A9s representa el costo de = tomar prestados esos fondos para financiar los proyectos de inversi=C3=B3= n. A una tasa de inter=C3=A9s alta, menos proyectos generar=C3=A1n ganan= cias netas. Por el contrario, a tasas de inter=C3=A9s bajas, menor es el= costo de tomar prestado, y m=C3=A1s proyectos de inversi=C3=B3n generan= ganancias netas. Es decir, que la inversi=C3=B3n depende inversamente d= e la tasa de inter=C3=A9s, la oferta de bonos del gobierno es ex=C3=B3ge= na y la de las empresas es igual al gasto de inversi=C3=B3n. en Posturas principales respecto a la= tasa de inter=C3=A9s p 3
  10. =E2=86=91 Keynes agr= ega otra situaci=C3=B3n: si el ingreso es tan grande que excede notablem= ente el gasto necesario y posible. Introduce aqu=C3=AD una diferencia en= tre los que defieren gasto actual para gastar en el futuro m=C3=A1s o me= nos cercano y los que simplemente no pueden gastar lo que reciben como i= ngreso y proceden a "acumular" (hoard) dinero para "invertir" transform=C3= =A1ndose as=C3=AD en lo que =C3=A9l llama "rentistas" (aquellos que vive= n de los intereses que resultan de tales inversiones o pr=C3=A9stamos). = Para el inter=C3=A9s del presente argumento lo relevante es que ambos ti= pos de retiro del circulante llevan a una disminuci=C3=B3n de la demanda= . Otros aspectos de esta diferencia se tocar=C3=A1n m=C3=A1s adelante
  11. =E2=86=91 El desarro= llo de esta percepci=C3=B3n llevo a Franco Modigliani a desarrollar su =E2=80= =9Chip=C3=B3tesis del ciclo de vida=E2=80=9D, de acuerdo a la cual los i= ndividuos tratan de mantener un est=C3=A1ndar de vida a trav=C3=A9s de e= lla. Dandose cuenta que en su vejez o al retirarse sus ingresos disminui= r=C3=A1n, proceden racionalmente a ahorrar en el presente a fin de mante= ner su nivel de gastos en ese futuro. Esto explicar=C3=ADa una variedad = de fen=C3=B3menos econ=C3=B3micos -por ejemplo, el porqu=C3=A9 cuando la= riqueza aumenta o la econom=C3=ADa se expande, los ahorros disminuyen e= n relaci=C3=B3n a los ingresos- El trabajo en esta =C3=A1rea dio a Modig= liani el Premio Nobel de econom=C3=ADa en 1985.
  12. =E2=86=91 Los econom= istas diferencian dos situaciones que llevan a la reducci=C3=B3n de prec= ios. Ambas pueden ser vistas como correspondiendo a momentos diferentes = en un ciclo econ=C3=B3mico. La primera corresponde a ca=C3=ADda de preci= os debido expansi=C3=B3n de la producci=C3=B3n. Esta situaci=C3=B3n corr= esponde a la descrita tanto por Smith, Ricardo, Marx, etc., y los llev=C3= =B3 a postular que, en la medida que la producci=C3=B3n se expande, la t= asa de ganancia decae, lo que a su vez promueve expansi=C3=B3n e innovac= i=C3=B3n, pero al mismo tiempo mantiene salarios relativamente bajos, to= do lo cual termina en una crisis de sobreproducci=C3=B3n, lo que provoca= otro proceso deflacionario, esta vez debido a la incapacidad de la dema= nda de absorber lo producido. Una situaci=C3=B3n similar se puede observ= ar con el fordismo, el= que -dado que aumenta la capacidad de demanda- permiti=C3=B3 una gran e= xpansi=C3=B3n de la producci=C3=B3n industrial, pero, en la opinion de K= eynes, llevo a su vez a una escasez de capital, lo que produce que el de= sarrollo se estanque, lo cual produce que el empleo caiga, con lo que se= incrementa la escasez de capital, etc. Esto, a su vez, lleva de nuevo a= l segundo tipo de deflaci=C3=B3n: preocupados por la incertidumbre, la d= emanda (no solo de bienes, sino tambi=C3=A9n de inversiones y otros serv= icios) cae catastr=C3=B3ficamente y lo mismo sucede con los precios y la= producci=C3=B3n, complet=C3=A1ndose el ciclo.
  13. =E2=86=91 E. JOHNSON= , ROBERT D. LEY, THOMAS CATE: =E2=80=9CPara Keynes, el equilibrio macroe= con=C3=B3mico es s=C3=B3lo el punto donde sistema se estaciona, lo que s= e logra cuando la fuerzas opuestas en el modelo te=C3=B3rico se balancea= n. En el modelo b=C3=A1sico, que figura en la Teor=C3=ADa General, las f= uerzas opuestas son los encargados de adoptar decisiones en los hogares,= que determinan la divisi=C3=B3n de su renta disponible entre el previst= o consumo y ahorro y los responsables de tomar decisiones comerciales, q= uienes deben determinar la inversi=C3=B3n planificada. Cuando los planes= de estas fuerzas opuestas est=C3=A1n en equilibrio, la suma de las filt= raciones ex ante ser=C3=A1 igual a la suma de las inyecciones ex ante en e= l flujo de ingresos. Y todos los mercados se vaciaran, con o sin salario= s y / o precios flexibles, y el equilibrio macroecon=C3=B3mico es alcanz= ado, con o sin pleno empleo.=E2=80=9D en T= he Concept of Equilibrium: A Key Theoretical Element in Keynes=E2=80=99 = Revolution
  14. =E2=86=91 . Economis= tas llaman a esta situaci=C3=B3n =E2=80=9Cequilibrio de subempleo=E2=80=9D= . Conviene notar que en realidad la situaci=C3=B3n no es estable en el s= entido com=C3=BAn de la palabra, sino un ejemplo de lo que se llama equilibrio din=C3=A1mico. Ver, por ejemplo: Jacques H. Dr=C3=A8ze = (edt) =E2=80=9CAdvances in Macroeconomic Theory=E2=80=9D.- Palgrave Macm= illan (2001) (en ingles)
  15. =E2=86=91 J. Robinso= n: =E2=80=9CEconomics of Imperfect Competition=E2=80=9D Macmillanm Londo= n, 1933- Por esos trabajos Robinson fue elegida -la =C3=BAnica no reside= nte (aparte de ser la =C3=BAnica mujer)- presidente de la Asociaci=C3=B3= n de Economistas de Am=C3=A9rica. Ella es tambi=C3=A9n la =C3=BAnica muj= er que ha sido considerada para el Premio Nobel de econom=C3=ADa.=
  16. =E2=86=91 existen ta= mbi=C3=A9n, debo admitir, fuerzas que uno puede con justicia describir c= omo autom=C3=A1ticas las que operan bajo cualquier sistema monetario en = la direccion de restaurar un equilibrio a largo plazo entre los ahorros = y las inversiones. Lo que dudo -a pesar de que es contrario a lo que gen= eralmente se cree- es si esas fuerzas autom=C3=A1ticas tender=C3=A1n... = no solo un equilibrio entre los ahorros y las inversiones, sino tambi=C3= =A9n un nivel =C3=B3ptimo de producci=C3=B3n=E2=80=9D (J. M. Keynes, Col= lected Writings, Vol. 13, 1973: p.395)
  17. =E2=86=91 La frase q= ue es com=C3=BAnmente atribuida a Keynes -Solo el estado puede restaurar= los equilibrios fundamentales- ha llegado a transformarse en un =E2=80=9C= lugar com=C3= =BAn=E2=80=9D de la econom=C3=ADa pol=C3=ADtica moderna. As=C3=AD, p= or ejemplo, durante la C= risis econ=C3=B3mica de 2008-2009 los peri=C3=B3dicos de diferentes = pa=C3=ADses la usaron repetidamente (ver, por ejemplo: Der Spiegel al respecto.= y Angela Merkel= proclamo =E2=80=9CSolo el estado es capaz de restaurar la confianza necesaria<= /a>. Anders Aslund -economista del Peterson Institute for International = Economics agrega only the state can restore confidence in capitalism. Keynes es= un poco m=C3=A1s medido. De acuerdo con varios autores la frase es: =E2= =80=9CSolo el Estado tiene la capacidad de actuar en el inter=C3=A9s gen= eral=E2=80=9D. (Ver, por ejemplo: How to Organize a Wave of Prosperity -= The Evening Standard, 31 July 1928) etc.
  18. =E2=86=91 "Para Keyn= es los aumentos de la demanda agregada determinan aumentos m=C3=A1s que = proporcionales en los ingresos. A su vez, un aumento del ingreso naciona= l es equivalente a un aumento del producto nacional y, por lo tanto, del= empleo.=E2=80=9D Departamento de Econom=C3=ADa de la Univer= sidad de la Rep=C3=BAblica en =E2=80=9DEconom=C3=ADa para NO economi= stas =E2=80=9D p 139: El Multiplicador keynesiano= del gasto
  19. =E2=86=91 H=C3=A9cto= r Daniel Z: =E2=80=9CLa idea b=C3=A1sica asociada con el concepto de mul= tiplicador keynesiano es que un aumento en el gasto originar=C3=A1 un au= mento mayor del ingreso de equilibrio. El multiplicador keynesiano ser=C3= =A1 mayor cuanto mayor sea la propensi=C3=B3n marginal a consumir. Intui= tivamente, el concepto de multiplicador keynesiano refleja que ante un i= ncremento en la inversi=C3=B3n (por ejemplo, la instalaci=C3=B3n de una = planta industrial productora de envases de vidrio) se genera un efecto d= irecto sobre el nivel de actividad y del empleo resultante de la inversi= =C3=B3n en cuesti=C3=B3n, pero tambi=C3=A9n se produce un efecto derrame= , como consecuencia de la mayor demanda de servicios de mantenimiento in= dustrial, de log=C3=ADstica de insumos, de materias primas, de energ=C3=AD= a, entre otros, necesarios para poner en pr=C3=A1ctica la inversi=C3=B3n= .=E2=80=9D en LA INTERVENCI=C3=93N DEL ESTADO CON EL FIN DE ESTABILIZA= CI=C3=93N ECON=C3=93MICA: LA =C3=93PTICA DE LA TEOR=C3=8DA KEYNESIANA.
  20. =E2=86=91 Alcides Jo= s=C3=A9 Lasa Cap=C3=ADtulo 3 El impacto de la revoluc= i=C3=B3n keynesiana sobre las finanzas p=C3=BAblicas
  21. =E2=86=91 Introducci=C3=B3n a la Econom=C3=ADa.-= ver tambi=C3=A9n Marco Antonio Plaza V: EL PRINCIPI= O DE LA EFICIENCIA MARGINAL DEL CAPITAL
  22. =E2=86=91 PREFERENCIA POR LA LIQUIDEZ= - ver tambi=C3=A9n Mario Guillermo G=C3=B3mez O: 4.= 4.1. La preferencia por la liquidez y la tasa de inter=C3=A9s=
  23. =E2=86=91 Esta es la= visi=C3=B3n cl=C3=A1sica y neocl=C3=A1sica: los ingresos solo provienen= de las ventas de lo que sea se haya producido. Cualquier ahorro es =E2=80= =9Coferta de capital=E2=80=9D y cualquier inversi=C3=B3n es =E2=80=9Ccon= sumo de ahorro=E2=80=9D (por el cual =E2=80=9Cel precio=E2=80=9D es el i= nter=C3=A9s). Sigue que cualquier variaci=C3=B3n en ingreso es resultado= de una variaci=C3=B3n similar en ventas/ consumo. Ver Ley de Say y Ley de Walras
  24. =E2=86=91 William R.= Parke: The Simple Keynesian = Model
  25. =E2=86=91 Steven M. = Suranovic (2005): The Keynesian Cross = Diagram (en =E2=80=9CInternational Finance Theory and Practice=E2=80= =9D)
  26. =E2=86=91 Paul Samue= lson: Economics (1948)
  27. =E2=86=91 Robert Sch= enk: Overview: The Multiplier Model=
  28. =E2=86=91 Andrew= 0;Rose; =E2=80=9CGlobal Macroeconomics=E2=80=9D, cap 8: =E2=80=9CKeynesian Cross=E2=80=9D or = =E2=80=9CMultiplier =E2=80=9D Model
  29. =E2=86=91 Mathew For= stater: T= he Multiplier
  30. =E2=86=91 T= he Keynesian Theory
  31. =E2=86=91 KEYNESIAN= EQUILIBRIUM
  32. =E2=86=91 Ver, por e= jemplo, Carmen C=C3=B3rcoles F: An=C3=A1lisis de los efectos del gasto p=C3=BAblico en la = econom=C3=ADa espa=C3=B1ola en el per=C3=ADodo 1980-1990 a trav=C3=A9s d= el multiplicador estructural Cap III: EL multiplicador keynesiano, p= p 96 y sig
  33. =E2=86=91 Prebisch, = R. op.cit. p.42.
  34. =E2=86=91 Prebisch, = R. op.cit. p.p. 40-41.
  35. =E2=86=91 Hansen, Al= vin (1957). Gu=C3=ADa de Keynes: 59. M=C3=A9xico: Fondo de Cultur= a Econ=C3=B3mica.
  36. =E2=86=91 Keynes es = reluctante a aumentar la cantidad de dinero m=C3=A1s all=C3=A1 de su tas= a natural de crecimiento (entendida como la que permite que un aumento e= n la cantidad de dinero equivalga a un aumento en la cantidad de servici= os monetarios que la cantidad total de circulante representa) porque tal= incremento podr=C3=ADa alterar la base de los calculos economicos pract= icos: la tasa de interes. Keynes sugiere que los calculos economicos se = basan en "una expectacion de relativa estabilidad en los costos futuros = (tasa de interes) del dinero, lo que no se podr=C3=ADa hacer con confian= za si el estandar de valor (dinero) fuera una mercancia con un alto grad= o de elasticidad de produccion" (Teo Gen, cap 17). En realidad el argume= nto es un poco m=C3=A1s complejo. Keynes no esta sugeriendo que hay una = tasa de interes natural, sino que hay una tasa de interes que correspond= e a cada situacion de nivel de empleo. Asumiendo entonces que el proposi= to del ejercicio es llegar al pleno empleo, la cantidad de dinero que de= beria circular es aquella que corresponde a una tasa de interes "optima"= (la que promueve pleno empleo). Esa no es una cantidad absolutamente fi= ja, pero oscila dependiendo de otros factores, lo que implica que modifi= car la cantidad de dinero sin consideracion a esos elementos puede tener= repercusiones negativas para la economia en general. - Ver Teo Gen, cap= 17, etc.
  37. =E2=86=91 Keynes con= sideraba que un aumento en los impuestos puede conducir a la disminucio = de la demanda "privada" por bienes y servicios, lo que no es positivo si= se desea aumentar esa demanda. La deuda p=C3=BAblica, por otra parte, s= olo busca utilizar esa fracci=C3=B3n que los ciudadanos hayan ahorrado.<= /span>
  38. =E2=86=91 . Para un = an=C3=A1lisis m=C3=A1s detallado, ver Prebisch, R. op.cit. p.43.<= /li>
  39. =E2=86=91 Hansen, A = op.cit. p.114
  40. =E2=86=91 Prebisch, = R. op.cit. p.p. 85,89.)
  41. =E2=86=91 John Ken= neth Galbraith Un viaje por la econom=C3=ADa de nuestro tiempo (1994= )
  42. =E2=86=91 La pol=C3=ADtica: Instituciones pol=C3=ADticas - CRISI= S DEL ESTADO DEL BIENESTAR: REPLANTEAMIENTO Y PERSPECTIVAS DE FUTURO - W= ikilearning
  43. =E2=86=91 ver, por e= jemplo, Henry Ha= zlitt "Econom=C3=ADa en una lecci=C3=B3n"
  44. =E2=86=91 . BBC Hist= ory http://www.bbc.= co.uk/history/historic_figures/keynes_john_maynard.shtml (en ingl=C3= =A9s)
  45. =E2=86=91 esta parec= e ser la vision de Trotsky. En efecto, =C3=A9l se refer=C3=ADa a las posic= iones pol=C3=ADticas que buscaban implementar las teor=C3=ADas de Keynes= as=C3=AD: el filisteo dem=C3=B3crata y el bur=C3=B3crata estalinista, s= i no gemelos, son por lo menos hermanos espirituales. Pol=C3=ADticamente= , pertenecen, en todo caso, al mismo campo. Sobre la colaboraci=C3=B3n d= e estalinistas, dem=C3=B3cratas y liberales reposa actualmente el sistem= a gubernamental de Francia y, a=C3=B1adiendo los anarquistas, el de la E= spa=C3=B1a republicana. Si el Independent Labour Party de Inglaterra ofr= ece una tan pobre apariencia es porque durante a=C3=B1os no ha salido de= los brazos de la Komintern. (...), con ello tanto m=C3=A1s seguramente = se convierten en jefes de la peque=C3=B1a burgues=C3=ADa contra el prole= tariado. - Trotsky Escritos filosoficos, pp 62 (Su Moral y la Nuestra. C= oyoac=C3=A1n, 16 de febrero de 1938)
  46. =E2=86=91 Murray N R= othbard, "Keynes the Man" en http://www.mises.= org/etexts/keynestheman.pdf (en ingl=C3=A9s) Rothbard nos informa qu= e Keynes dijo que su sociedad preferida "significaria la eutanasia del q= ue vive de los intereses monetarios (rentier) y, consecuentemente, la eu= tanasia del poder progresivamente opresor de los capitalistas para explo= tar el valor de la escasez del capital"
  47. =E2=86=91 . Liberal = Economics and Democracy.- ISBN 978-0-7006-0803-4 - http://www.kansaspress.ku.edu/wallib.html
  48. =E2=86=91 La burgues= =C3=ADa no puede existir si no es revolucionando incesantemente los inst= rumentos de la producci=C3=B3n, que tanto vale decir el sistema todo de = la producci=C3=B3n, y con =C3=A9l todo el r=C3=A9gimen social. (Manifies= to Comunista)
  49. =E2=86=91 el capital= ismo depende en "temporales permanentes de destruccion creativa" (Capita= lismo, Socialismo y Democracia)
  50. =E2=86=91 La llamada= "teor=C3=ADa de la inestabilidad inherente". Posteriormente Hyman Minsky desarrollo e= sa percepci=C3=B3n a trav=C3=A9s del estudio del ciclo financiero de las= empresas (el llamado =E2=80=9Cciclo de Minsky=E2=80=9D). De acuerdo a e= sta visi=C3=B3n, empresas que inician una =C3=A1rea econ=C3=B3mica est=C3= =A1n, generalmente, bien financiadas y reciben ingresos suficientes como= para cubrir sus costos y producir ganancia. Empresas que llegan a esa =C3= =A1rea posteriormente -confrontadas con una disminuci=C3=B3n de la tasa = de ganancia- recurren a la deuda para financiarse. Esa tendencia continu= a hasta que eventualmente las empresas est=C3=A1n recorriendo a prestamo= s incluso para financiar el pago de dividendos e intereses de deudas pre= viamente contra=C3=ADdas. Puede incluso llegar a ser el caso que muchos = =E2=80=9Cinversionistas=E2=80=9D -realizando que =E2=80=9Cinversiones de= corto plazo=E2=80=9D, ya sea en acciones o bonos, etc, puede producir g= randes ganancias, recurran a la deuda a fin de invertir. En alg=C3=BAn m= omento algo sucede y el edificio completo colapsa, el resultado exacto d= ependiendo de cuan avanzado se este en el ciclo y cuan extensamente se h= aya difundido a trav=C3=A9s del sistema econ=C3=B3mico. (ver, por ejempl= o Wolfson, Martin H: =E2=80=9CMinsky=E2= =80=99s Theory of Financial Crisis in a Global Context=E2=80=9D, Journal= of Economic Issues, 1ro de junio de 2002)
  51. =E2=86=91 Rese=C3=B1= a de "La econom=C3=ADa en una lecci=C3=B3n" de Henry Hazlitt, Juan Ram=C3= =B3n Rallo Juli=C3=A1n en http://www.liberalismo.o= rg/articulos/59/
  52. =E2=86=91 =E2=80=9CU= d puede sentir, Sr Presidente, a estas alturas, que mi cr=C3=ADtica es m= as obvia que mi simpat=C3=ADa. Pero ese no es verdaderamente el caso. Ud= permanece, en mi opini=C3=B3n, el gobernante.... que ve la necesidad de= un cambio profundo de medios y est=C3=A1 tratando de lograrlo sin intol= erancia, tiran=C3=ADa o destrucci=C3=B3n...=E2=80=9D (Keynes, Carta abie= rta a Roosevelt, punto 14) y =E2=80=9CPero mas all=C3=A1 de esto, no se = ven razones obvias para un sistema de socialismo estatal. No es la propi= edad de los medios de producci=C3=B3n lo que es importante que el Estado= controle. Si el Estado es capaz de determinar el uso agregado de recurs= os dedicados a aumentar los instrumentos (Keynes usa esa palabra para de= signar bienes de capital) y la tasa b=C3=A1sica de recompensa a quienes = los poseen, habr=C3=A1 logrado todo lo que es necesario. A=C3=BAn m=C3=A1= s, las medidas de socializaci=C3=B3n necesarias pueden ser introducidas = gradualmente y sin romper la tradici=C3=B3n general de la sociedad=E2=80= =9D (Teor=C3=ADa general, etc, cap 24)
  53. =E2=86=91 comentario= sobre "A d=C3=B3nde va la Gran Breta=C3=B1a" (Trosky) en http://www.marxists.org/history/etol/= document/comments/keynes01.htm
  54. =E2=86=91 Marx y Key= nes: Paralelismos siniestros- en http://www.lib= eralismo.org/articulo/383/40/
  55. =E2=86=91 . Curiosam= ente parece haber aqu=C3=AD un acuerdo entre Keynes y su gran oponente, = Von Mises, por lo menos en relaci=C3=B3n al papel del dinero. En efecto,= Von Mises dice, en relaci=C3=B3n a la Ley de Say: "Las mercanc=C3=ADas,= dec=C3=ADa Say, se pagan en =C3=BAltima instancia no con dinero, sino c= on otras mercanc=C3=ADas. El dinero es solamente el medio de intercambio= generalmente empleado; juega s=C3=B3lo el papel de intermediario. Lo qu= e, en definitiva, el vendedor quiere recibir a cambio de las mercanc=C3=AD= as vendidas son otras mercanc=C3=ADas". Von Mises: Lord Keynes y la Ley = de Say (en http://www.liberalismo.org/articulo/= 341/40/ )
  56. =E2=86=91 . Generalm= ente con un rol aut=C3=B3nomo dentro de ciertos objetivos, tales como fi= jar la tasa de inter=C3=A9s a fin de promover crecimiento econ=C3=B3mico= y estabilidad monetaria
  57. =E2=86=91 Luis Ordun= a D=C3=ADez (2005) Las ideas d= e keynes para el orden economico mundial
  58. =E2=86=91 Ya Adam Sm= ith hab=C3=ADa observado: =E2=80=9CCuando la guerra viene, los pol=C3=AD= ticos son tanto incapaces como reluctantes de aumentar los impuestos en = proporci=C3=B3n al aumento de los gastos. Son reluctantes porque temen o= fender a la gente, quienes, debido a un aumento tan s=C3=BAbito y mayor = en los impuestos, pronto la encontrar=C3=ADan inconveniente... La facili= dad del empr=C3=A9stito los libra de ese predicamento.. A trav=C3=A9s de= pr=C3=A9stamos ellos, con un aumento muy moderado en los impuestos, pue= den levantar, a=C3=B1o tras a=C3=B1o, el dinero suficiente para conducir= la campa=C3=B1a y a trav=C3=A9s de la pr=C3=A1ctica del financiamiento = perpetuo se les permite, con el m=C3=ADnimo aumento de los impuestos (a = fin de pagar los intereses de la deuda p=C3=BAblica) levantar anualmente= el m=C3=A1ximo de dinero (para financiar la guerra)=E2=80=9D - Adam Smi= th, La riqueza de las naciones (1776). Libro V, Cap=C3=ADt= ulo 3, Art=C3=ADculo III: De la Deuda Publica -
  59. =E2=86=91 Veo el asp= ecto =E2=80=9Crentier=E2=80=9D del capitalismo como una fase transiciona= l que desaparecer=C3=A1 cuando haya efectuado su labor. Y con la desapar= ici=C3=B3n de esa fase rentier mucho mas sufrir=C3=A1 un cambio p= rofundo. Ser=C3=A1 adem=C3=A1s una gran ventaja del orden de cosas que e= stoy proponiendo, que la eutanasia del rentier, del inversionista sin ot= ra funcion, sera una continuaci=C3=B3n prolongada y gradual de lo que he= mos visto hace poco en Gran Breta=C3=B1a, y no necesitar=C3=A1 una revol= uci=C3=B3n. (J.M. Keynes: Teor=C3=ADa general, etc, cap 24)
  60. =E2=86=91 Gold and E= conomic Freedom.- Alan Greenspan (en ingl=C3=A9s) en http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.html
  61. =E2=86=91 Ludwig von Mises= Lord Keynes y la Ley de Say -Traducido por Ju= an Ram=C3=B3n Rallo Juli=C3=A1n
  62. =E2=86=91 "Harry Dex= ter White, un comunista en el FMI" por Francisco Cabrillo en http://www.libertaddigital.c= om/index.php?action=3Ddesaopi&cpn=3D16988
  63. =E2=86=91 =E2=80=9CI= ntroducci=C3=B3n a la Econom=C3=ADa Pol=C3=ADtica=E2=80=9D de Wilhelm R=C3= =B6pke =E2=80=93 Uni=C3=B3n Editorial SA =E2=80=93 IS= BN 84-7209-019-1
  64. =E2=86=91 R=C3=B6pke= parece avanzar aqu=C3=AD el mismo argumento que los partidarios de la e= scuela austriaca avanzan cuando confrontan crisis: el problema es- se ad= uce- que hubo =E2=80=9Cdemasiada prosperidad=E2=80=9D -entendida como ex= ceso de demanda- con anterioridad. Dejando de lado si eso es correcto (l= o que Lionel R= obbins -uno de los proponentes iniciales de la sugerencia - llego a = dudar: =E2=80=9CA partir de la asunci=C3=B3n que el diagn=C3=B3stico de = liberaci=C3=B3n monetaria excesiva e inversiones err=C3=B3neas fuera cor= recto -lo que ciertamente no es un asunto resuelto"), dos problemas perm= anecen irresueltos: que hacer al respecto y el por qu=C3=A9 no lo propon= en durante el per=C3=ADodo de =E2=80=9Cprosperidad inflacionista=E2=80=9D= misma. El ejemplo m=C3=A1s reciente y notorio de este problema es el de= Alan Greenspa= n, quien, a mediados del 2007, durante la burbuja que precedi=C3=B3 = a la La crisi= s de liquidez de septiembre de 2008, respondi=C3=B3 -cuando se le ad= virti=C3=B3 de las consecuencias de la gran expansi=C3=B3n de deuda -tan= to individual como nacional- que estaba sucediendo- que en todo caso esa= deuda no era problema (=E2=80=9CTales temores ignoran un hecho fundamen= tal de la vida moderna: en una econom=C3=ADa de mercado, el aumento de l= a deuda va de la mano con el progreso=E2=80=9D), dando as=C3=AD origen a= lo que llego a ser conocido como el =E2=80=9CGreenspan Put=E2=80=9D (=E2= =80=9Cno importa que sea lo que falle, la Reserva Federal lo rescatar=C3= =A1 a trav=C3=A9s de crear el suficiente dinero barato para sacarlo de s= us problemas=E2=80=9D). Sin embargo, y con posterioridad, al comienzo de= la crisis, Greenspan rastre=C3=B3 su origen al =E2=80=9Cexceso de cr=C3= =A9dito=E2=80=9D (=E2=80=9CLa accesibilidad de cr=C3=A9dito dom=C3=A9sti= co barato y aparentemente sin l=C3=ADmite alent=C3=B3 una locura de cons= trucci=C3=B3n y compra.. lo que sucedi=C3=B3 a continuaci=C3=B3n es ahor= a una historia penosamente familiar=E2=80=9D. )-, Alan Greenspan, =E2=80= =9CThe Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World. New York: Penguin P= ress. ISBN 1-59420-131-5. OCLC 122973403 capt 18,= -=E2=80=9CCuentas corrientes y deuda=E2=80=9D- y =E2=80=9CEp=C3=ADlogo=E2= =80=9D respectivamente)
  65. =E2=86=91 Edmund S. = Phelps, Antoni Bosch Dom=C3=A8nech: Econom=C3=ADa pol=C3=ADtica especialm= ente capt XXI: =E2=80=9CLa inflaci=C3=B3n; sus causas y su control=E2=80= =9D
  66. =E2=86=91 John Petro= ff: COMPARACI=C3=93N ENTRE EL MODELO C= L=C3=81SICO Y EL DE KEYNES
  67. =E2=86=91 Valpy Fitz= Gerald: MODELOS MONETARIOS Y C= ONTROL DE LA INFLACI=C3=93N EN LAS ECONOM=C3=8DAS DE MERCADO EMERGENTES<= /a>
  68. =E2=86=91 Por ejempl= o: =E2=80=9CLa inflaci=C3=B3n aparece como un mecanismo por el que las d= iversas fuerzas sociales, que se instalan a su turno en el poder, logran= asegurar el valor real de sus ingresos. Es decir, que la inflaci=C3=B3n= no es ni un fen=C3=B3meno neutro, ni as=C3=A9ptico, o una especie de ma= leficio... sino que hay grupos sociales que.. se benefician de ella.=E2=80= =9D J=C3=BCrgen Schuldt, Alberto Acosta: Infl= aci=C3=B3n: enfoques y pol=C3=ADticas alternativos para Am=C3=A9rica Lat= ina y el Ecuador p 9
  69. =E2=86=91 Esteban Me= rcatante: Keynes, la inflaci=C3=B3n y l= os salarios
  70. =E2=86=91 En la medi= da que tales acciones son percibidas por diferentes sectores ya sea como= in=C3=ADmicas al crecimiento econ=C3=B3mico o como tentat= ivas de hacer recaer los los costos de la prosperidad general sobre un s= ector determinado o excluir a ese sector del beneficio de tal prosperida= d
  71. =E2=86=91 Keynes mis= mo plantea este punto. =C3=89l considera que el aumento de precios en re= laci=C3=B3n a los salarios representa una transferencia potencial de rec= ursos al estado, si =C3=A9ste extrae impuestos sobre tales excesos de ga= nancia dada la misma producci=C3=B3n. Para un an=C3=A1lisis m=C3=A1s det= allado de esto y problemas asociados, ver: Allan H. Meltzer: Keynes's Monetary T= heory
  72. =E2=86=91 por ejempl= o: Mario Rapoport aduce: "En este sentido, la inflaci=C3=B3n afecta el r= eparto de las riquezas, mientras que la deflaci=C3=B3n la producci=C3=B3= n de bienes. Pasamos por alto que la realidad es m=C3=A1s compleja y sup= one, en cada caso, situaciones distintas y ganadores y perdedores difere= ntes. Pero Keynes concluye, =E2=80=9Cla inflaci=C3=B3n es injusta y la d= eflaci=C3=B3n inoportuna. Quiz=C3=A1s la deflaci=C3=B3n es la peor de la= s dos si se hace abstracci=C3=B3n de inflaciones extraordinarias como la= de Alemania=E2=80=9D (en 1923). En efecto, en un mundo empobrecido =E2=80= =9Ces peor provocar desocupaci=C3=B3n que frustrar al rentista en sus es= peranzas=E2=80=9D aunque =E2=80=9Clos dos son males a evitar=E2=80=9D (p= =C3=A1g. 75)." en Volvien= do a Keynes y a la inflaci=C3=B3n
  73. =E2=86=91 Fabozzi, F= ranco Modigliani, Michael G. Ferri, Margarita G=C3=B3mez Escudero: MERCADOS E I= NSTITUCIONES FINANCIERAS esp pp 193
  74. =E2=86=91 Mohameden = Ould-Mey, por ejemplo, argumenta que la devaluaci=C3=B3n de la moneda co= ntribuye a la transferencia de recursos desde el Sur al Norte": Currency Devaluation and Resource Transfer f= rom the South to the North
  75. =E2=86=91 famosament= e, Keynes respondi=C3=B3 a quienes predicaban paciencia con la crisis "p= orque se resolver=C3=ADa sola en el largo plazo" que: "En el largo plazo= todos estaremos muertos"
  76. =E2=86=91 A Lerner (= 1943): Lerner, Abba: Func= tional Finance and the Federal Debt
  77. =E2=86=91 Gabriel Le= andro: "La pol=C3=ADtica econ=C3=B3mica, entonces, consiste en el que el= Gobierno emplea sus poderes leg=C3=ADtimos manipulando diversos instrum= entos, con el fin de alcanzar objetivos socio-econ=C3=B3micos previament= e establecidos. La pol=C3=ADtica econ=C3=B3mica tiene distintos objetivo= s, dentro de los cuales se puede decir que los principales son: 1.- Crec= imiento y desarrollo econ=C3=B3mico, que consiste b=C3=A1sicamente en lo= grar tasas de crecimiento de la producci=C3=B3n satisfactorias, incluyen= do cambios estructurales continuos en el tejido productivo. 2.- Pleno em= pleo, es decir garantizar la creaci=C3=B3n neta de puestos de trabajo pa= ra proporcionar a un nivel de vida razonable para todos los miembros cap= acitados de la fuerza laboral disponible, reducir y prevenir el desemple= o c=C3=ADclico a corto plazo, eliminar el desempleo estructural y otras = formas de desempleo persistente a largo plazo. 3.- Estabilidad de precio= s, la cual consiste en el mantenimiento del nivel general de precios, o = una tasa de inflaci=C3=B3n reducida. 4.- Distribuci=C3=B3n de la renta y= la riqueza, o sea una reducci=C3=B3n progresiva de las diferencias entr= e los niveles de ingresos personales, la concentraci=C3=B3n de la riquez= a y la provisi=C3=B3n de bienes p=C3=BAblicos. 5.- Equilibrio de la bala= nza de pagos, se pretende reducir el d=C3=A9ficit exterior a medio plazo= , mantener un nivel de reservas de divisas y la solvencia frente al exte= rior.-- Para lograr ese objetivo el Estado dispone de varios instrumento= s." en Papel del gobierno en la econo= m=C3=ADa: La pol=C3=ADtica econ=C3=B3mica
  78. =E2=86=91 por ejempl= o: Andrea Roventini (2010): Introduction to Macroeconomics: The Neoclassical Synthesis<= /li>
  79. =E2=86=91 Juan Tugor= es Q (2010): Macroeconom=C3=ADa. Para en= tender la crisis en una econom=C3=ADa global p 150
  80. =E2=86=91 De acuerdo= a Marshall ("Principles of Economics", London; Macmillan, 1890), period= os inferiores al "periodo del mercado" son considerados "corto plazo" (s= hort run). En el corto plazo variaciones de demanda, etc, afectaran prod= ucci=C3=B3n solo en forma limitada. Las empresas pueden, por ejemplo, ut= ilizar mejor sus recursos -asumiendo que no lo est=C3=A9n haciendo- pero= emplear m=C3=A1s trabajadores, aumentar capacidad instalada, etc, toma = tiempo. El "largo plazo" (long run) es el periodo que permite a las empr= esas responder a esos cambios. Es el periodo en el cual empresas pueden = entrar o salir de un mercado en forma planificada. Las empresas generalm= ente producen sobre la base de c=C3=A1lculos de largo plazo: variar la p= roducci=C3=B3n, los niveles de empleos y decisiones acerca de inversione= s y compra de insumos, etc. no son generalmente tomadas ligera o r=C3=A1= pidamente.
  81. =E2=86=91 J. R. Hick= s (1937): Mr Keynes and the =E2=80= =9CClassics=E2=80=9D: A Suggested Interpretation
  82. =E2=86=91 Paul Samue= lson: Economics (1948)
  83. =E2=86=91 Overview: The Multiplier Model
  84. =E2=86=91 Andrew= 0;Rose: =E2=80=9CKeynesian Cross=E2=80= =9D or =E2=80=9CMultiplier =E2=80=9D Model
  85. =E2=86=91 F=C3=A9lix= Jim=C3=A9nez, Gisella Chiang y Erick Lahura (2001): MACROECONOM=C3=8DA: ENFOQUES Y MODELOS N= UEVOS EJERCICIOS RESUELTOS
  86. =E2=86=91 Jos=C3=A9 = E De Gregorio Rebeco (2007): Macroeconom=C3=ADa: te= or=C3=ADa y pol=C3=ADticas p 499, etc
  87. =E2=86=91 Gianluigi = Vernasca (2011): IS-L= M Model: the Short-Run Equilibrium
  88. =E2=86=91 por ejempl= o: Chipman, John S; Moore, James C (1978): The New Welfare Economics, 1939-1974
  89. =E2=86=91 John M. Go= wdy (2004): The Revolu= tion in Welfare Economics and Its Implications for Environmental Valuati= on and Policy
  90. =E2=86=91 Paul A. Sa= muelson: The Pure Theory= of Public Expenditure
  91. =E2=86=91 Por ejempl= o: Axel Leijonhufvud argumenta que la s=C3=ADntesis esta basa= da en un equilibrio walrasiano, lo que ser=C3=ADa contrario a la visi=C3= =B3n de Keynes, para quien la econom=C3=ADa es, fundamentalmente, un pro= ceso en desequilibrio.- Ver "Keynesian Economics and the Economics of Ke= ynes", en AER, 1968.
  92. =E2=86=91 Axel Kicil= lof (2009): =E2=80=9CPero, por lo mismo, tampoco puede resultar extra=C3= =B1o que la formaci=C3=B3n de la llamada s=C3=ADntesis neocl=C3=A1sica n= o se haya detenido en el art=C3=ADculo de Hicks ya que all=C3=AD se conc= ed=C3=ADan, t=C3=A1citamente, demasiados puntos a Keynes. Modigliani, en= un tambi=C3=A9n c=C3=A9lebre art=C3=ADculo, inicia una embestida todav=C3= =ADa de mayor envergadura pues, partiendo de ISLM de Hicks, reintroduce = el mercado de trabajo.... De esta manera, con el regreso del mercado de = trabajo, se pone en marcha una m=C3=A1s completa restauraci=C3=B3n de la= teor=C3=ADa cl=C3=A1sica que incluye cambios en la funci=C3=B3n consumo= , en el efecto saldos reales y otros mecanismos que aseguran que el sist= ema tienda siempre a la plena ocupaci=C3=B3n. En otras palabras, regresa= la teor=C3=ADa cl=C3=A1sica con todas sus fuerzas: si no existen rigide= ces en las variables nominales los economistas deben confiar siempre en = la vieja ley de Say y en la vieja teor=C3=ADa cuantitativa del dinero.=E2= =80=9D en Una ex=C3=A9gesis de =E2=80=9C= Mr. Keynes y los cl=C3=A1sicos=E2=80=9D de J. R. Hicks. El nacimiento de= l modelo IS-LM o el pecado original de la macroeconom=C3=ADa moderna=
  93. =E2=86=91 Philip Are= stis: El Keynesianismo, secci=C3=B3n 2 (Las Ideas B=C3=A1= sicas pp 349 y sig. (en =E2=80=9CCr=C3=ADtica a la econom=C3=ADa ort= odoxa=E2=80=9D .- Seminario de Econom=C3=ADa Cr=C3=ADtica TAIFA
  94. =E2=86=91 Por ejempl= o: Joan Robinson (1969): La Econom=C3=ADa, hoy (en = P. Arestis: Cr=C3=ADtica a la econom=C3=ADa ortodoxa, etc, pp 23-28)
  95. =E2=86=91 Hector Gui= llen R: Keynes y las econom=C3=ADas monetarias de producci=C3=B3n<= /a>
  96. =E2=86=91 Scitovsky, Tibor= (1941). =C2=ABA Note on Welfare Propositions in Economics=C2=BB. Rev= iew of Economic Studies 9 (1):  pp. 77=E2=80=9388. = doi:10.2= 307/2967640. .- Ver tambi=C3=A9n: Fo= nseca, Gon=C3=A7alo L.. =C2=ABThe Paretian System: Scitovsky Reversals and the Double Crit= eria=C2=BB.
  97. =E2=86=91 D. Dillard= (1948): The Economics of John Maynard Keynes: The Theory of a M= onetary Economy New York, Prentice-Hall, (La teor=C3=ADa econ=C3=B3m= ica de John Maynard Keynes, Madrid 1965;)
  98. =E2=86=91 Wray, L. R= . (1998) Preliminaries to a monetary theory of production: the labour th= eory of value, liquidity preference and the two price systems, in: R. Be= llo=EF=AC=81ore (Ed) Marxian Economics: a Reappraisal, Vol. 1 [Method,Va= lueandMoney](London:Macmillan).
  99. =E2=86=91 A. Leijonh= ufvud: "Keynesian Economics and the Economics of Keynes", en AER, 1968.
  100. =E2=86=91 Ver M La= voie - 2002 =E2=86=91 Roy Jeff= rey Rotheim - 1998 New Keynesian economics/post Keynesian alter= natives
  101. =E2=86=91 Famosame= nte, en la =E2=80=9CTeor=C3=ADa General=E2=80=9D Keynes escribi=C3=B3 (p= 161): =E2=80=9C[Una] gran parte de nuestras actividades dependen de un = optimismo espont=C3=A1neo y no en un modelo matem=C3=A1tico de la expect= ativas, ya sea moral o hedonista o econ=C3=B3mico. La mayor=C3=ADa, prob= ablemente, de nuestras decisiones de hacer algo, las consecuencias compl= etas de lo cual se elaborar=C3=A1 a lo largo de muchos d=C3=ADas, s=C3=B3= lo puede ser tomado como un resultado de "esp=C3=ADritus animales" - el impulso espont=C3=A1neo a la acci=C3=B3n en lugar de la inacci=C3= =B3n, y no como el resultado de un promedio ponderado de beneficios cuan= titativos multiplicados por probabilidades cuantitativas.=E2=80=9C Eso, = en aislamiento, podr=C3=ADa parecer un comentario sin mayor fundamento, = pero esta basado en un detallado an=C3=A1lisis anterior de Keynes (ver =E2= =80=9CA Treatise On Probability- 1921). Para empezar a profundizar, ver = David Marsay (2011): Ove= rview on Keynes=E2=80=99 Treatise on Probability
  102. =E2=86=91 Stefan K= esting (2008) "A=C3=BAn m=C3=A1s, el alegato de Herbert Simon = a favor de la pluralidad de racionalidades y su concepto de racionalidad= limitada est=C3=A1 profundamente influenciado por Keynes. Despu=C3=A9s = de una discusi=C3=B3n a fondo de la ideas microecon=C3=B3micas expresada= s en el duod=C3=A9cimo cap=C3=ADtulo de la Teor=C3=ADa General, Simon co= ncluye: =E2=80=9CS=C3=B3lo el miedo de pronunciar un anacronismo flagran= te me impide reclamar a Keynes, [...] como el verdadero creador de la ec= onom=C3=ADa de la racionalidad limitada " (Simon (1997): An Empirically = Based Microeconomics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York an= d Melbourne.): p 16." en: Ke= ynesian microeconomics and institutional change p 2).
  103. =E2=86=91 Erik Ang= ner (2006): =E2=80=9COtro macroeconomista muy conocido por sus incursion= es en la psicolog=C3=ADa es John Maynard Keynes. En su discurso del Prem= io Nobel (2001), George Akerlof fue tan lejos como a afirmar que la =E2=80=9CTeor=C3= =ADa General=E2=80=9D de Keynes [1936] fue la mayor contribuci=C3=B3n a = la econom=C3=ADa conductual antes de nuestra era." en BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS p 16
  104. =E2=86=91 Por ejem= plo Richard Postner, profesor en la Universidad de Chicago,= utiliza un enfoque keynesiano para analizar la crisis que comenz=C3=B3 = en el 2008 en su =E2=80=9CEl fracaso del Capitalismo: La crisis del 2008= y el descenso hacia la depresi=C3=B3n.=E2=80=9D.- Ver Jonathan Rauch: <= a rel=3D"nofollow" class=3D"external text" href=3D"http://prodavinci.com= /2009/05/31/desarrollo/richard-posner-las-fallas-del-capitalismo-y-la-de= presion/">Richard Posner, las fallas del capitalismo y la depresi=C3=B3n=
  105. =E2=86=91 Esto es = uno de los problemas centrales de la econom=C3=ADa "ortodoxa", en la med= ida que pone en cuesti=C3=B3n una asunci=C3=B3n b=C3=A1sica: si los indi= viduos se comportan racionalmente, porque ni los precios ni los salarios= bajan cuando -de acuerdo a esa asunci=C3=B3n- deber=C3=ADan hacerlo?. <= a href=3D"/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman" title=3D"Daniel Kahneman">Daniel Kahnem= an ha explorado el asunto, llegando a la conclusi=C3=B3n que conside= raciones de =E2=80=9Cjusticia=E2=80=9D influencian esas decisiones. Esta= percepci=C3=B3n provee una fundaci=C3=B3n a algunos de las asunciones k= eynesianas. En las palabras de Kahneman: =E2=80=9CEs plausible que el es= tado sepa m=C3=A1s acerca de las futuras preferencias de los individuos = que los individuos mismos saben en el presente=E2=80=9D en =E2=80=9CNew = Challenges to the Rationality Asumption=E2=80=9D -Journal of Institution= al and Theoretical Economics=E2=80=9D 150, (march 1994) p 18-36.- Ver ta= mbi=C3=A9n: D Kahneman,- J. Knetch y R. Thaler: =E2=80=9CFairness and th= e Assumptions of Economics=E2=80=9D -Journal of Business, 59, (October 1= 986b) p S285-S300.- Por ese trabajo, Kahneman comparti=C3=B3 el Premio N= obel de Econom=C3=ADa con Vernon Smith en 2002.
  106. =E2=86=91 Chris Gi= les in London, Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt and,Krishna Guha in Washington.= =C2=ABThe undeniable s= hift to Keynes=C2=BB. The Financial Times. Consultado el 23-01-2008= .
  107. =E2=86=91 Robert S= kidelsky (2009): El regreso de Keynes
  108. =E2=86=91 Paul Kru= gman (2009): Ho= w Did Economists Get It So Wrong? ver tambi=C3=A9n su libro =E2=80=9C= The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008.=E2=80=9D
  109. =E2=86=91 James K.= Galbraith. =C2=ABThe C= ollapse of Monetarism and the Irrelevance of the New Monetary Consensus<= /a>=C2=BB. The University of Texas. Consultado el 29-02-2009.

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